Week 7 – NFL Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 7 – NFL Main Slate Daily Plug



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The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 7? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of October.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Bills, -17.5
49ers, -10.5
Packers, -4.5
Jaguars, -4.5

Highest Game Totals:
LAR@ATL, 54
ARI@NYG, 50.5
PHI@DAL, 49.5 (Yahoo! Only)
BAL@SEA, 48.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Bills, 29.5
Rams, 28.5
Giants, 26.75
Cowboys, 26 (Yahoo! Only)
Packers, 26
Falcons, 25.5
Seahawks, 25.5

Lowest Team Totals:
Dolphins, 12
Redskins, 14.75
Saints, 16.25
Chargers, 19.5
Bengals, 19.75

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

LAR@ATL, ARI@NYG, MIN@DET

With the highest game total on the slate at 54 points, the Rams and Falcons game is going to be a popular one to stack. The Falcons are third in average yards per pass attempt (Y/A) allowed to opponents, at 8.47 Y/A on the season. Jared Goff is set up nicely to bounce back from his 78 yard performance last week. Expect Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks to all be viable, as the Falcons rank 30th or worse by DVOA against all WR positions per Football Outsiders. On the other side, Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards every single week this year. The Rams themselves are just 20th by DVOA against the pass, which means Ryan should have success with his usual weapons – Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. Devonta Freeman is back to workhorse status for the Falcons, while Todd Gurley II is expected to be back in general in Week 7.

Another week, another Cardinals stack! Arizona heads to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants, who are getting Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back in time for this matchup. Daniel Jones is the top ranked QB in our Model for Week 7, while Kyler Murray is 4th. With the second highest game total on the slate (50.5 points), this spot makes sense. David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Golden Tate all make sense as higher end options to add into your game stack pool here.

While the Ravens/Seahawks and Colts/Texans games offer plenty of upside, the Vikings and Lions stand out to us as an interesting option to round out game stacks in Week 7.

If our rule of thumb is to roster players who can eclipse a 25 fantasy point total in our lineups (and it should be in tournaments), then this matchup is full of them. Kirk Cousins has had 27 or more pass attempts in 4 out of 6 games, averages 8.9 Y/A, and has elite weapons in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to utilize. While this remains one of the run heaviest offenses in the NFL, it’s not as bad for passing as we might perceive. Dalvin Cook, however, is obviously a great option in this spot regardless. Matthew Stafford is the value play at QB in this game, while Kerryon Johnson is the 5th best RB on DraftKings (6th on FanDuel) for us in Week 7. Kenny Golladay projects for 9.8 targets for us in the Occupy Model, while Marvin Jones Jr sticks out as a nice buy-low candidate after last week’s dud performance.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Josh Allen (vs. Miami)

QB pricing is pretty tight this week, but it’s best not to overthink spots in DFS contests. The Bills have the highest implied team total on the slate, and face a Miami Dolphins defense allowing a league high 9.51 Y/A to opposing QBs. Allen should also add another 9-10 carries on the ground, which only adds to both his floor and ceiling upside in this spot. It is hard to see how Buffalo reaches it’s 29.5 implied team total without Allen reaching value.

Stud: Matt Ryan (vs. LA Rams)

As bad as Atlanta’s season has been, it’s certainly not Matt Ryan’s fault they haven’t won as often as they’d like. The Falcons signal caller has two consecutive games with over 30 DraftKings fantasy points, and throws for an average of 335.2 yards per game at 7.8 Y/A. The Rams are slightly below league average (20th by DVOA) against the pass as a defense. In yet another favorable set of conditions at home (Atlanta has the most dome games this season), Ryan will need to continue to pass if Vegas’ implied game script takes place – the Falcons are 2.5 point underdogs here. Don’t see much reason to have to pay down at QB this week, but Gardner Minshew is one of the better values on the slate if you need it.

Running Back

Stud: Dalvin Cook (@ Detroit)

Cook has had 16 or more carries in all but one game this year, while seeing an average of 4-5 targets per game. Minnesota runs the ball on ~53% of their offensive snaps this season, which is the 2nd most in the NFL (behind San Francisco). While on the road, Cook does face a Lions run defense allowing opponents to earn 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) on average, 5th most in the NFL to date. The Vikings are a slight 1 point favorite at Ford Field this Sunday.

Stud: Leonard Fournette (@ Cincinnati)

They finally priced Fournette up a bit for his matchup against the hapless Bengals. Lenny is a 4 point favorite against the Bengals this week, and has one of the highest floors at the RB position based on his current usage. His 37.1 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model is far and away the highest projected for us on the slate. The Bengals allow a league high 5.3 YPC to opposing rushers, and the most overall rushing yards per game to opponents in the league. 

Value: Kerryon Johnson (vs. Minnesota)

On the other side of the MIN/DET matchup, Kerryon has consistently played 70% or more of the offensive snaps for the Lions since the release of CJ Anderson. After an underwhelming game against the Packers on Monday night, expect a bounce back performance in Week 7. He projects as the 5th highest owned RB on DraftKings, and 6th highest on FanDuel with a 25.5 weighted-opportunity score.

Value: Latavius Murray (@ Chicago)

With the Saints headed to Chicago without the services of Alvin Kamara available, Murray elevates into a starter’s role. The matchup against the Bears’ defense isn’t as difficult as it first appears on paper, since Chicago is down a man of their own with Akiem Hicks inactive. The Saints signed Zach Zenner earlier in the week to fill out the depth chart behind Murray, but neither he or Dwayne Washington are realistic threats to Murray’s workload in Week 7.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Julio Jones (vs. LA Rams)

Jones has had 7+ targets every single week, and has gone three consecutive weeks without scoring a touchdown. He projects for 8.9 targets in the Occupy Model for the Falcons in the highest total game on the slate. The challenge is finding your way to pay up to Julio here should you choose to do so, but it’s never a bad play given his expected usage.

Stud: Cooper Kupp (@ Atlanta)

Same game, better receiver (fire emojis). Kupp projects for the most targets in our Model on the slate, at 10.3 in this spot. He leads all Rams players with 7 red zone targets through 6 games, has a 28% target share on Jared Goff’s pass attempts, and a 26% share of his targeted air yards. He’s been priced up significantly over Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks because of how stable his production has been, which is what makes him (perhaps) fade worthy in tournaments in favor of those two. For low-risk lineups, Kupp makes perfect sense as the top target in the highest total game on the slate.

Value: Cole Beasley (vs. Miami)

Beasley has an identical target share to downfield threat John Brown, and comes at a lower price on all sites in Week 7. His 7.4 yard average depth of target (aDOT) suggests he’s the slot route specialist for Josh Allen in this offense, a role that should have a much higher floor against Miami than it does otherwise. Of note – Buffalo is extremely run heavy in the red zone, with Gore and Josh Allen dominating the touches. Beasley lacks tournament upside without getting into the endzone.

Value: Mike Williams (@ Tennessee)

Despite the return of Hunter Henry, relative overall value of Keenan Allen, and pass game efficiency of Austin Ekeler, it was Williams who led the Chargers in targets in Week 6, with 10. He’s now had double digit targets in two consecutive games, yet still remains priced relatively low. He’s yet to find the endzone in 2019, and that simply cannot stay that way at his current usage. Williams is one of the best buy low WR on the entire slate.

Value: Allen Lazard (vs. Oakland)

Lazard got work on Monday night thanks to Aaron Rodgers lobbying the coaching staff to get him some snaps, and ended up with a touchdown in a key spot as a result. At the minimum price on the slate, Lazard has appeal because of Rodgers apparent desire to throw to him with MVS, Allison and Adams all expected to (potentially) miss this game against the Raiders.

Geronimo Allison and MVS are both ACTIVE, however, neither practiced all week. 

Tight End

Stud: Evan Engram (vs. Arizona)

TE against the Cardinals. Is it overrated? Derek Carty seems to think so. Last week the trend continued, with Austin Hooper posting a massive 8-117-1 line on 8 targets. The contest providers have caught on, pricing Engram way up (on DraftKings especially).

While he projects for a position high 7.7 targets in our Model, strong cases can be made for cheaper Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, George Kittle and Darren Waller plays here. With inflated expected ownership for Engram, and at best a coin flip’s chance he actually outscores the other top plays at the position, no one should judge you for going with one of those other guys (or this next player below) over him this week.

Value: Hunter Henry (@ Tennessee)

Henry remains a strong value in Week 7 since salaries posted before he had his monstrous 8-100-2 game on 9 targets Sunday night. The Titans are also 24th by DVOA against the TE position in 2019 per Football Outsiders. If looking for some salary cap relief in Week 7, you could do a lot worse than settling for Hunter Henry at TE this week.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

This slate feels fun, and therefore we still love spending 6-8% of your bankroll – a high number we are comfortable with for NFL Main slates.

With some high total games back on the slate, and an ability to jam in 3 high volume RBs pretty easily (hint), we’re back to 70-80% allocation to low-risk contests.

Spend the rest on low-risk in the same spots we normally recommend – H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. Just one on DraftKings this week – the Free Football Contest Series presented by Sam Adams (Must be 21+ for the freerolls sponsored by alcoholic beverage companies).

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $100K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $125K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $30K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $30K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

You should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $40K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $25K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1.111M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side, $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone and $100 entry fee $300K Spy contest are the best ones available to you on DraftKings (there’s also a $100K Spy at the same entry fee with a smaller field).

For FanDuel users, you can consider the $1, 294 person WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 satellites in addition to the NFL Sunday Million ones. The best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $150K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $160K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $60K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $200K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. This week’s milly maker is only $10 to enter (vs. the $20 per entry it normally is) We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $33 entry fee, $500K Deep Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $50K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $2.5M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. There’s a bonus $50K prize pool each week this month for users who roster a player who scores an overtime touchdown in this contest.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson

HIGH-RISK: Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: David Johnson (if active), Chris Carson, Saquon Barkley, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon III,  Frank Gore, Chase Edmonds (if DJ out) DJ active

HIGH RISK:  Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Kenyan Drake, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Carlos Hyde, Devin Singletary, Todd Gurley

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, Dede Westbrook, John Brown

HIGH RISK: Will Fuller V, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, Tyler Boyd, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark Jr, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr, Mohamed Sanu, Brandin Cooks, Auden Tate, Calvin Ridley, Chris Conley, T.Y. Hilton, DK Metcalf, Zay Jones, Dante Pettis, Ted Ginn Jr, Jake Kumerow

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews

HIGH RISK: George Kittle, Delanie Walker, Gerald Everett, Josh Hill

DST:

LOW-RISK: San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers

HIGH-RISK: Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!