Week 6 NFL Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 6 NFL Main Slate Daily Plug


The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.

The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Chris on Twitter @cdr02989 for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 6? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of October.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Ravens, -12
Cowboys, -8
Chargers, -7 (Yahoo! Only)
Chiefs, -4

Highest Game Totals:
HOU@KC, 55
ATL@ARI, 51.5
SF@LAR, 50.5
CIN@BAL, 48
SEA@CLE, 46.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Ravens, 30
Chiefs, 29.5
Rams, 26.75
Cowboys, 26.25
Falcons, 26.25

Lowest Team Totals:
Steelers, 17.25 (Yahoo! Only)
Bengals, 18
Jets, 18.25
Dolphins, 19.25
Titans, 19.75

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

HOU@KC, ATL@ARI, DAL@NYJ

Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes should be appointment television. Texans at Chiefs also happens to be the highest projected game on the slate by a wide margin. Our favorite receivers in this game? DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill (if active) project to see 9.7 and 6.9 targets respectively in the Occupy Model. Last week’s hero, Will Fuller V, is right behind them at 6.5 targets. Travis Kelce is the anticipated target leader for Mahomes, with 8.8 projected to go his way in our Model as well. We like Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde the most at the RB position for the game stack.

After getting some work in practice on Friday, David Johnson is “good to go” for the Cardinals in their home game against the Falcons. Matt Ryan is currently the top quarterback in the Occupy Model, while Kyler Murray ranks eighth. Devonta Freeman has a 27.9 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model, so he’s firmly ahead of Ito Smith. Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald are projected to lead their teams in targets, although all of the secondary receivers are firmly in play. Austin Hooper is also in the chalkiest matchup in DFS – TE against the Cardinals defense.

All Jets skill position players were priced as if Sam Darnold would be missing another game in this spot, which automatically makes this game a nice option for stacks. With tight concentration on Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper on the Cowboys side, it’s very easy to mix in the likes of Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder to gain exposure to the Jets side of the football. Le’Veon Bell offers the highest weighted-opportunity of all RBs on the slate at 40.3, and comes at a bargain price.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Lamar Jackson (vs. Cincinnati)

Jackson leads a Ravens offense with the highest team total on the slate into battle against the hapless Bengals, who allow opposing passers to throw for 8.4 yards per attempt (Y/A). We know Jackson’s cash game appeal derives from his rushing upside, so it’s worth pointing out the only team allowing more rushing yards per game to opponents than the Bengals is 0-4 Miami. He’s expensive, but it’s hard to find quality reasons to fade Lamar in low-risk.

Value: Jimmy Garoppolo (@ LA Rams)

Garoppolo averages 8.1 Y/A this season, so while the 49ers are 3 point road underdogs against the Rams on Sunday, expect him to have to air it out. The 49ers implied team total has risen by 1.25 points since lines opened, while the game total itself has risen from 49 points to 50.5. Jimmy’s favorite target George Kittle is questionable, but expected to play. He has one of the highest floors of all QBs under $6,000 on DraftKings on the slate.

Running Back

Stud: Ezekiel Elliott (@ NY Jets)

The highest projected RB on the slate is an 8 point road favorite against the Jets this Sunday. Elliott has a 30.0 weighted opportunity score in the Occupy Model. The Jets have actually been a tough rush defense, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry to opponents. With knee and ankle issues plaguing Tony Pollard, Zeke’s role should be safe in Week 6.

Stud: Alvin Kamara (@ Jacksonville) – IF ACTIVE

The Jaguars have been the best matchup for opposing RBs on the season, allowing 5.5 yards per carry to the likes of Damien Williams, Carlos Hyde, Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman and Christian McCaffrey. If Kamara is active (and that is a real if at this stage), this matchup makes him almost a sure lock for low-risk lineups. He has 60% of the carries and 21% of the targets from Teddy Bridgewater in his three starts for the Saints. Latavius Murray is an easy swap in if Kamara misses here because of the matchup.

Value: Leonard Fournette (vs. New Orleans)

Fournette continues to dominate touches for the Jaguars. He has a 34.9 weighted opportunity score in the Occupy Model, and is our second highest ranked RB for both DraftKings and FanDuel. As a three point home favorite, Fournette should be a staple of all low-risk lineups at his price. He continues to see 75% of the carries and 18% of the targets in this offense. Fournette finally found the end zone against the Panthers, and should continue to be the focus of their goal line attack. 

Value: Le’Veon Bell (vs. Dallas)

The RB with the highest weighted opportunity score in our Model is Bell. His price is too low in Week 6. With Sam Darnold under center once again, the Jets should see an immediate rise back to at least league average offensively. Bell has an 84% share of the carries in the Jets offense, with a team high 28% target share. He should be able to reach a true ceiling with Darnold moving the offense more effectively.

Value: Malcolm Brown (vs. San Francisco)

With Todd Gurley listed as doubtful for Week 6, Brown stands to benefit the most from his absence. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 26 total touches this season, so while the 49ers defense is a tough matchup, a mix of Brown’s year-to-date efficiency and his low price makes him worthy of consideration. He’s just one of many value options that opens up the other roster spots you can use on this slate.

Todd Gurley is OUT for Week 6.

Wide Receiver

Stud: DeAndre Hopkins (@ Kansas City)

It’s been an underwhelming 5 weeks for DeAndre Hopkins, yet he’s still posted an extremely solid 31-347-2 line on 44 total targets on the year. Against the Chiefs, will he finally reach his ceiling? As our highest projected owned WR on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it appears that our competition has gotten sharper – the big game from Will Fuller V last week isn’t scaring people away from Hopkins here. It shouldn’t scare you, either – we like him for 9.7 targets in what is the highest total game on the slate at 55 points.  

Stud: Cooper Kupp (vs. San Francisco)

There are only two WRs in the Occupy Model who project for more raw total targets than Hopkins, and one of them is Kupp. His 10.4 target projection makes him a nice option despite his inflated price tag. Kupp has 6 red zone targets in 5 games, which is the most on the Rams. With Todd Gurley very likely missing this game, Kupp might become an even larger focal point of Sean McVay’s game plan as well. 

Value: Preston Williams (vs. Washington)

Williams has the largest target share of Josh Rosen’s pass attempts in his two starts, at 29%. He’s also been on the receiving end of 40% of his intended air yards. With an extra week to prepare for a home game against the now Jay Gruden-less Washington Redskins, the Dolphins might just find success for the first time in the 2019 season. When they get into the red zone, Williams is who they look for – his 5 red zone targets are the most on the team, no other Dolphin has more than 1. 

Value: Jamison Crowder (vs. Dallas)

In poker, “flop lag” is a term that describes when a flop perfectly matches your previous hand. This is the “flop lag” spot for Jamison Crowder. We wrote him up for you in Week 5 despite Luke Falk being under center. With Sam Darnold returning, this is the actual value spot for a cheap Jamison Crowder. He was on the receiving end of SEVENTEEN of Sam Darnold’s 41 pass attempts against the Bills in Week 1. Probably best not to overthink this. He will be the slot receiver Darnold looks for in a likely trailing game script against the Dallas Cowboys.

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (vs. Houston)

With Sammy Watkins doubtful and Tyreek Hill’s return questionable, lock in Kelce as the top target for Patrick Mahomes against the Texans. The Chiefs have the second highest team total on the slate, and Kelce should be the player who benefits the most from that here. He comes at a hefty price, but what it does allow you to do is lock in a healthy floor with access to multiple touchdown upside. Kelce has 7 red zone targets on the season, and has yet to catch a touchdown in that part of the field. It’s highly unlikely that goose egg remains for much longer.

“Value”: Austin Hooper (@ Arizona)

Austin Hooper is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with Julio Jones. We all know by now that the matchup for tight ends against the Arizona Cardinals is one worth targeting. Hooper is still reasonably expensive for a TE, but the matchup combined with his role in the Falcons offense makes him perhaps the easiest call of the entire slate.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

There’s an outrageous amount of injuries in Week 6. Game time decisions will dictate the context of the slate. Please pay attention to our streams, Twitter feed, and check here for updates through the weekend as a result.

Slate like this are rife with #chaos, something we love here at Occupy. It’s another 6-8% allocation slate, and we think it’s once again a great week to allocate more to tournaments – about 35-40%.

Spend the rest on low-risk in the same spots we normally recommend – H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. There are THREE on DraftKings this week – one sponsored by Jameson, one sponsored by Samuel Adams, and one sponsored by Straight Talk Wireless (Must be 21+ for the freerolls sponsored by alcoholic beverage companies). 

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $100K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $250K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $125K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $30K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $35K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

You should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $150K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $40K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $25K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1.3M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $75K Blind Side, $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone and $100 entry fee $300K Spy contest are the best ones available to you on DraftKings (there’s also a $100K Spy at the same entry fee with a smaller field).

For FanDuel users, you can consider the $1, 294 person WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 satellites in addition to the NFL Sunday Million ones. The best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $25 entry fee, $85K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $100K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $70K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $200K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. This week’s milly maker also has a $100K bonus pool users who roster the highest scoring QB-WR stack will split. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $500K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $50K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $2.75M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. There’s a bonus $50K prize pool each week this month for users who roster a player who scores an overtime touchdown in this contest.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes II, Sam Darnold, Deshaun Watson

HIGH-RISK: Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram II, Latavius Murray (if Alvin Kamara out)

HIGH RISK: Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Chris Thompson, Devonta Freeman, Damien Williams, Derrick Henry, Carlos Hyde, Adrian Peterson, Darrell Henderson, Ito Smith

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett, Robert Woods, Will Fuller V, Dede Westbrook, Larry Fitzgerald, Courtland Sutton

HIGH RISK: Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Demarcus Robinson, Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Alshon Jeffery, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill, Willie Snead IV, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Chark Jr, DK Metcalf, Mecole Hardman, Robby Anderson, Michael Gallup, Mohamed Sanu, DeVante Parker, Marquise Goodwin, Ted Ginn Jr, Keke Coutee, Miles Boykin (if Marquise Brown out)

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Will Dissly, Mark Andrews

HIGH RISK: George Kittle, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett, Jared Cook

DST:

LOW-RISK: Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys

HIGH-RISK: New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!