Week 4 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 4 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.

The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Follow Chris on Twitter @cdr02989 for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 4? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of October.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Chargers, -14.5
Rams, -10
Patriots, -8.5
Chiefs, -7.5
Colts, -7.5

Ravens, -7.5

Highest Game Totals:
KC@DET, 55
WAS@NYG, 49
TB@LAR, 49
SEA@ARI, 47.5
CAR@HOU, 47.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs, 31.25
Rams, 29.5
Chargers, 29.5

Colts, 26.50
Seahawks, 26.25
Ravens, 26.25

Lowest Team Totals:
Dolphins, 15.00
Bills, 16.75
Jaguars, 17.25
Browns, 18.75
Raiders, 19.00

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

KC@DET, WAS@NYG, SEA@ARI

This week looks fun! Patrick Mahomes II heads to Ford Field for his first career NFL start indoors against the Lions. Chiefs players we like stacking with Mahomes here? RBs Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy are in play since Damien Williams is out again. Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are also in play. We project Watkins for 8.1 targets in the Occupy Model, and TE Travis Kelce for 9.0 targets. Matthew Stafford popped up as questionable with a hip injury on Friday, but is expected to be active. Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr and T.J. Hockenson are all game stack options on the Detroit side.

The Daniel Jones era got off to a hot start in Week 3, as Danny Dimes led the Giants to a comeback victory in Tampa Bay. Case Keenum has quietly posted an efficient season, ranking 14th amongst all QBs in ESPN QBR so far. With both QBs ranking inside the top 10 in the Occupy Model, Redskins and Giants is one of our favorite game stacks. Wayne Gallman offers value as a home favorite with Saquon out, while Chris Thompson should remain involved in the pass game. There’s a lot of value to pair with Jones and Keenum in this game. The game total has risen by 3.0 points since this game opened. 

The Seahawks head to Arizona to face the Cardinals, and at this point everyone knows that the Cardinals are one of the most up-tempo offenses in football. Kyler Murray’s offense is averaging 45 pass attempts per game, which almost certainly forces Arizona’s opponents into “pace up” situations. On the defensive side, Arizona allows opposing QBs to throw for 7.95 yards per attempt (Y/A), and 286.3 yards per game. Russell Wilson’s extremely efficient 8.6 Y/A season looks poised to continue as a result. With a 30% target share, Tyler Lockett should benefit the most from increased passing volume for the Seahawks. Will Dissly is also one of the best values in this Seahawks offense given the matchup – Arizona is 32nd in the NFL defending TEs in the passing game per Football Outsiders DVOA.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Patrick Mahomes II (@ Detroit)

What’s left to add about Mahomes? The MVP is averaging an astonishing 10.5 Y/A through three games, with a touchdown on 8.8% of his passes. The Lions are a decent pass defense through 3 weeks, as they only allow 6.0 net yards per attempt (NY/A) to opposing QBs. It’s possible they challenge Mahomes more than he has been challenged all year – Mahomes can still be the number one QB in football at lower efficiency given his historic performance level though. There’s nothing wrong with building your low-risk lineups around him, as he continues to play at an unprecedented level for fantasy purposes.

Darius Slay “true game time decision” for Lions, not that any secondary has been able to slow down Mahomes at 100% anyway.

Value: Daniel Jones (vs. Washington)

The Redskins rank 31st in the NFL in points allowed per game, which makes sense for an 0-3 team. Daniel Jones was the most efficient rookie passer in the preseason, and is averaging 8.8 Y/A here in 2019 so far (40 total passes). In what may amount to a rare opportunity for the Giants to play as favorites, it’s hard to build a case against Jones. The Redskins generate the 4th least amount of pressure on opposing passers on the slate, so Jones should see plenty of clean pockets to operate out of.

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (@Houston)

It has been hammered into our brains as DFS players – home favorite RBs are ideal for low-risk lineups. Forget that with CMC at the moment. Even as a 3.5 point road underdog, CMC is a total workhorse. He has a 38.2 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model heading into this matchup with the Texans at NRG Stadium. CMC has 80% of the carries in this offense per game, and a 19% target share. The Texans are allowing opponents to average only 108 rushing yards per game, but at 5.4 yards per carry clip – 3rd highest in the NFL. CMC should be able to find success once again this week.

Stud: Leonard Fournette (@ Denver)

This spot was reserved for Austin Ekeler in the Chargers’ upcoming matchup with the Dolphins, but with Melvin Gordon expected to be active, it’s hard to be on Ekeler as an option for low-risk contests. Tied with Ekeler in weighted-opportunity score? Fournette. While Fournette is a 3 point road underdog, he has no real competition for touches in the Jaguars backfield, and averages 6-7 targets a game so far. He hasn’t yet found his ceiling, but at that workload we’re going to continue recommending him. He’s our 2nd favorite RB on DraftKings and 3rd favorite on FanDuel in the Occupy Model.

Value: Wayne Gallman (vs. Washington)

Gallman steps in to Saquon Barkley’s vacated role in the Giants backfield at low salary across the daily fantasy industry. With the Giants as 3 point favorites in their game with the Redskins, the hope is that Gallman benefits from a positive game script and gets the opportunity volume we need to hit value in cash games. He projects as the 3rd highest owned at the position on DraftKings, and 4th highest on FanDuel. Of note – the Giants offensive line ranks as the 8th best run blocking unit in the NFL by Football Outsiders adjusted line yards – that is why there is room to be optimistic that New York’s success in the run game can continue even without Barkley.

Value: Kerryon Johnson (vs. Kansas City)

With the release of CJ Anderson, Kerryon saw his overall snap volume increase from 54% in Week 2 to 75% in Week 3. Unfortunately, that’s the only good note on him from Week 3, as he averaged just 1.8 yards per carry (YPC) on 20 carries against the Eagles. Philadelphia has been one of the best run defenses in football, though, while Kansas City has actually been the actual worst on a YPC basis, allowing opponents to earn 6.2 YPC. While 6th round rookie Ty Johnson may spell Kerryon at times, he should be in for a huge workload in the highest total game on the slate.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Keenan Allen (@ Miami)

Mike Williams? Out. Hunter Henry? Out. Travis Benjamin? Likely Out. Virgil Green? Out.

There’s no one else – literally – available to catch passes from Philip Rivers at wide receiver except Allen and one other player we mention below. We project Keenan for 11.5 targets in the Occupy Model. As the best option in the passing game, Allen should be a key part of helping the Chargers reach their 29.5 point implied team total in Week 4. 

Benjamin also OUT. Andre Patton promoted from practice squad.

Stud: Tyler Lockett (@Arizona)

Made the case for Lockett above in the game stacks section already – Arizona’s opponents are going to be forced into “pace up” situations based on how they play. Lockett’s 31% target share and role as a versatile route runner who plays both in the slot and outside makes him valuable here. DK Metcalf is worth a look, as we project both he and Lockett for 7 targets in the Occupy Model. Metcalf’s role as more of a field stretcher makes him more of a high-risk play, so Lockett is the safer of the two for low-risk lineups. 

Value:  Curtis Samuel (@ Houston)

Samuel projects to see 8.1 targets against the Texans, the highest volume of all wide receivers priced under $5000 on DraftKings… that is, if we exclude Miami Dolphins players. While your opponents rush to roster Terry McLaurin against the leaky Giants secondary, Samuel will go overlooked in a decent spot of his own against the Texans, who struggle against WRs per Football Outsiders DVOA – 21st against WR1s, and 24th against WR2s in 2019. While that’s no guarantee of future success here for Samuel, it simply reinforces the idea that his spot here in Week 4 isn’t as difficult as many may think.

Value: Dontrelle Inman (@ Miami)

Inman projects for 6.4 targets against the Dolphins at the minimum price on DraftKings and Yahoo. He’s still very affordable for his suddenly large anticipated role in Week 4 on FanDuel, as well. Inman spent the preseason with the Patriots before rejoining the franchise he played with from 2014-2016 this season. He developed into a trustworthy target for Andrew Luck late in the 2018 season; while he’s yet to see more than 3 targets in a game here in 2019, we don’t have to look too far into the past to see what Inman is capable of delivering. The Miami Dolphins are the worst pass defense in the NFL so far – all options who project to see high volume against them are in play.

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (@ Detroit)

Travis Kelce has 5 red zone targets this season – for 0 catches, 0 yards, and 0 touchdowns. Simply put, this is bound to change sooner rather than later. His targets through the first three games? 8-9-8 for 25 in total. With 20% of his total opportunity coming in the red zone, his role as a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses on potential touchdown scoring plays is firmly intact. He continues to be worth his hefty price as long as you can find the value at other positions to roster him.

Value: Will Dissly (@ Arizona)

Greg Olsen, Week 3 – 6/75/2 on 7 targets, good for 25.5 DraftKings points.
Mark Andrews, Week 2 – 8/112/1 on 9 targets, good for 28.2 DraftKings points.
T.J. Hockenson, Week 1 – 6/131/1 on 9 targets, good for 28.1 DraftKings points.

Each of these games were against the Arizona Cardinals. To be frank, everyone in DFS knows this matchup is ideal – Dissly projects as the third highest owned TE option on the slate for us for that reason. We have him at 5.3 targets in Week 4, and he is our top play at the position regardless of salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

Once again, this is a 6-8% allocation weekend.

We can ramp back up to about 60-80% low risk with your allocation – H2Hs, single entry double ups (multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them). Use the rest of your allocation dollars to enter some of the high-risk contests we recommend according to your bankroll tier size below.

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

We’ve given you a player pool to work from below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from that group.

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. DraftKings has THREE this week: one sponsored by Samuel Adams, one freeroll sponsored by Straight Talk Wireless here in Week 4, and one by Jameson. (Must be 21+ for the freerolls sponsored by alcoholic beverage companies). 

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $100K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $300K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $110K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $35K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $40K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

You should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. We also have satellites for opening NHL and NBA contests available, make sure to check out our Models for those sports during the regular season!

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $150K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $50K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $2,000!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $20K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1.6M Play-Action Presented by StatShark on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $75K Blind Side, $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone and $100 entry fee $300K Spy contest are the best ones available to you on DraftKings.

For FanDuel users, you can consider the $1, 293 person WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 satellites in addition to the NFL Sunday Million ones. The best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $25 entry fee, $100K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $100K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $70K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline of 4-5% of your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st. Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $4.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $500K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $50K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $3M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. There’s a bonus $100K prize pool this week for users who roster the lowest priced player who scores a touchdown.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Case Keenum

HIGH-RISK: Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Austin Ekeler (if MG3 out MG3 emergency only per RapSheet), Chris Thompson, David Johnson, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram II

HIGH RISK: Austin Ekeler (if MG3 active), Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Devonta Freeman, James White, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Marvin Jones Jr, Cooper Kupp, Dontrelle Inman, Terry McLaurin

HIGH RISK: Robert Woods, Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin (if active), Will Fuller V, Sterling Shepard, DeVante Parker, Mecole Hardman, Tyrell Williams, Marquise Brown, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Demarcus Robinson, D.J. Chark Jr, Breshad Perriman, KeeSean Johnson, Preston Williams, Paul Richardson Jr, Bennie Fowler, Jakeem Grant


TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson

HIGH RISK: Austin Hooper, Eric Ebron, Mike Gesicki, Gerald Everett

DST:

LOW-RISK: Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots

HIGH-RISK: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!