Week 2 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 2 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.

The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Follow Chris on Twitter @cdr02989 for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 2? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of October.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Patriots, -19
Ravens, -14
Texans, -10
Chiefs, -7.5
Cowboys, -6

Highest Game Totals (Total Move):
KC@OAK, 53.5
PHI@ATL, 52.5 (Yahoo! Only)
NO@LAR, 52 (-1.5)
NE@MIA, 48.5 (1.5)
SEA@PIT, 47.5 (1)

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Patriots, 33.75
Chiefs, 30.5
Ravens, 30
Texans, 26.5
Cowboys, 26.25

Lowest Team Totals:
Dolphins, 14.75
Cardinals, 16
Jaguars, 16.5
Broncos, 19.5
Redskins, 20.25

GAMES TO STACK

NO@LAR, SEA@PIT, GB@MIN

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.

The Rams host the Saints this week in a rematch of the hotly debated 2018 NFC Championship Game. With the third highest implied total on the slate, there is plenty of stacking opportunity to take advantage of. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas rank in the top tier at their respective positions in the Occupy Model on this slate, while Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods all find themselves within the top 11 at the WR position in the Occupy Model, as well. Cooks, Kupp, and Ted Ginn Jr probably offer more high-risk lineup upside than Thomas and Woods just because of projected ownership.

Did you forget about Ben Roethlisberger’s weird home/road splits phenomenon? While it hasn’t been as dramatic since the 2016 season (116.7 QB rating at home that year vs. just 78.4 on the road), it’s only logical to expect a bounce back here for Ben after the disappointing opener against the Patriots. The Steelers and the Seahawks have one of the higher projected game totals on the slate (47.5 points). Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf all should be asked to do more as road underdogs than they had to do against the Bengals last week. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the best Steeler in this game for low-risk builds, while Donte Moncrief makes sense in stacks given his 7.3 projected targets. Will James Washington finally get more snaps? Our Model likes him slightly more than Moncrief, as well.

The Vikings visit the Packers at Lambeau Field this weekend, in a battle of two offenses that largely underperformed fantasy expectations in Week 1. The biggest concern with this game is that the game total has dropped by 3 points since lines opened. Leaving that aside, though, this game represents an opportunity we should like for high-risk contests – none of the WRs project for more than 5% ownership at this point. This is the type of game stacking opportunity that could win a GPP as a result.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Lamar Jackson (vs. Arizona) 

What a season debut for Lamar. It might be hard to use the Dolphins as a barometer for much of anything in 2019, however, Lamar’s passing looks much improved. While we shouldn’t expect him to continue to average 16.2 yards per attempt (Y/A), we should be happy enough with what we saw to feel better about him in all formats. Where’d the rushing go? When you’re up 28-0 at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, you don’t have to risk your QB as much on the ground. Expect Lamar to rush more in competitive situations. He is our highest-graded QB in the Occupy Model at a 67.2 OF Index.

Value: Josh Allen (@ NY Giants) 

We like QBs with rushing upside in fantasy. Josh Allen’s price has come down a bit from Week 1’s on DraftKings, while it has gone up on FanDuel. He’s our fifth highest-graded QB in the Occupy Model for Week 2. His 6.8 Y/A against the Jets actually matched what he showed us in the second half of 2018 when he returned from injury; his 3.8 yards per rush attempt was way under his average of 7.1 yards per rush over that same sample. There’s a strong possibility Allen’s rushing efficiency improves in Week 2 as a result. With 37 dropbacks and 10 rushing attempts against the Jets, we’ve seen enough to know Allen’s legs are still being used frequently in this offense.

Running Back

Stud: Saquon Barkley (vs. Buffalo)

Saquon has the highest projected floor in fantasy at the position given his workload, efficiency, and (especially this week) the lack of high quality skill position teammates around him. He and another teammate mentioned below should dominate the opportunities to touch the ball here in Week 2. Saquon continues to have the highest weighted-opportunity score for RBs in the Occupy Model. The Giants team total has increased by 1.75 points since lines opened.

Stud: Alvin Kamara (@ LA Rams)

Kamara’s 31.8 weighted-opportunity score is our 6th highest on the main slate in Week 2. He’s our 3rd favorite RB on FanDuel this week, and our 7th favorite on DraftKings. This Rams defense allowed Christian McCaffrey to earn 209 all purpose yards in Week 1 on 29 total touches, suggesting Kamara may be in a position to do much of the same. Kamara played 76% of the snaps in Week 1, compared to just 27% for Latavius Murray. This is a much higher snap share than we saw for him with Mark Ingram in previous seasons. If it holds, Kamara may be better than expected as a stud RB in fantasy this season.

Value: Leonard Fournette (@ Houston) 

Fournette is currently our third highest graded RB in the Occupy Model for DraftKings, 7th highest for FanDuel. He has a 34.3 weighted-opportunity score, fourth highest on the slate. Underdog RBs are generally uncomfortable in low-risk, however, Fournette has a rookie QB in Gardner Minshew making his first start alongside him, and he already proved in Week 1 that a trailing game script doesn’t threaten his workload.

Fournette played 86% of the offensive snaps for the Jaguars in Week 1, drew 13-15 of the RB carries (86%) and also saw 6 targets in the passing game. Fournette has a three-down role at a huge salary discount.

Value: Josh Jacobs (vs. Kansas City)

Double-dipping with underdog value RBs, Josh Jacobs is projected as the highest owned RB on the slate in Week 2. He has a 28.9 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model. Jon Gruden gave the Alabama product 24 touches in Week 1, and promised “a similar workload” was what he hoped to provide him in Week 2 per beat report. Jacobs had just 1 target in the passing game for the Raiders in Week 1, so it’s fair to wonder whether or not Jalen Richard will spoil the fun in the passing game if Oakland is trailing (they did play from ahead in Week 1 most of the game). Regardless, it does seem like it is all systems go for Jacobs in this Raider offense at the moment.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Michael Thomas (@ LA Rams) 

If Week 1 is an indication of what’s to come, then 2019 looks to have more of the same Michael Thomas we saw in 2018. As road underdogs against the Rams, Thomas should continue to see a healthy volume of targets in what many will consider a revenge spot for the Saints. Thomas projects to see 8.9 targets in the Occupy Model. He is our highest graded FanDuel WR, and 2nd highest DraftKings WR.

Stud: Julian Edelman (@ Miami)

Edelman has consistently drawn a heavy volume of targets from TB12. Despite many changes to the Patriots supporting cast, Edelman should still have a nice floor against the Dolphins. With the highest implied team total on the slate, Edelman feels like the best option to get exposure to New England on the slate. We project him for 8.0 targets in the Occupy Model.

Where’s Sammy Watkins, you ask? His ceiling performance in Week 1 is going to drive higher ownership. He’s a low-risk play you can consider here in Week 2 against the Raiders, but the Occupy Model actually does place a much lower priority on him here. Mahomes has suggested more work may be in store for other skill players this week per beat report.

Value: DK Metcalf (@ Pittsburgh)

As road underdogs against the Steelers, Russell Wilson should be forced into more throwing situations in Week 2. Metcalf’s target share in Week 1 suggests a higher floor than his price reflects here; with Seattle’s lack of depth behind the Hulk-like rookie, he should see similar opportunity. We have 6.6 targets as a projection for Metcalf in Week 2 against the Steelers.

Value: Cole Beasley (@ NY Giants)

Beasley popped up with a questionable tag this week, so we have to monitor that on game day. He’s a much better value on DraftKings than FanDuel thanks to his low salary and the scoring system (PPR). We like Beasley for 6.3 targets on the road against the Giants in this one. Beasley drew 9 targets in Week 1 from Josh Allen, second only to John Brown on the Bills. His 9.0 yard average depth of target in that game (aDOT) suggests he has the slot route role locked down for this team.

Tight End

Stud: Evan Engram (vs. Buffalo) 

Sterling Shepard drew 7 targets in Week 1 against Dallas, he’s in the concussion protocol. Cody Latimer had 164 air yards in Week 1, good for a stunning 52% share of Eli Manning’s air yards in that game. He’s popped up on the injury report with a calf injury. Who’s left to catch passes for these Giants? Outside of Bennie Fowler, it’s Saquon (duh) and Engram. We’re projecting 8.3 targets for him against the Bills.

Value: Darren Waller (vs. Kansas City)

Waller posted a 7/70 line on 8 targets in the first game for this new look Raiders offense. His 8 targets were good for a massive 31% share of Carr’s pass attempts. We like him for 7.3 targets in Week 2, and he makes sense as a value TE in one of the highest projected total games (by Vegas odds) on the slate. Waller’s 6.9 aDOT suggests he runs high percentage, low-risk routes in this offense for Derek Carr. The massive role Jared Cook had in this Raider offense in 2018 appears to belong to Waller for 2019 through one game.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

Sticking with 4-5% of your bankroll as the recommendation on this slate. There are a lot of value plays at RB we can leverage for low-risk contests; the hesitation with going heavier here is that a lot of them are in weird spots as home underdogs.

Continue to play 75-80% of that in low-risk contests – H2Hs, single entry double ups (multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them). These early weeks of the season are marketed heavily by the contest operators to draw inexperienced players to the game. You’ll want to be in the low-risk lobby for them to pick to play.

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Once again,we’ve given you a player pool to work from below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from that group.

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. DraftKings has one sponsored by Samuel Adams for the first seven weeks of the season. There is also a freeroll sponsored by Jameson for the next four weeks. Drink up, everybody! Apparently we’re all alcoholics in DFS.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, postyour own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, $100K Pylon or $12 entry fee, $250K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $111K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $50K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $50K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

You should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $150K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $50K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $2,000!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $20K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1.75M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $50K Blind Side, $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone and $100 entry fee $150K Spy contests are the best ones available to you on DraftKings.

For FanDuel users, you can consider the $1, 294 person WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 satellites in addition to the NFL Sunday Million ones. The best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $25 entry fee, $100K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $90K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $65K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline of 4-5% of your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st. Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $500K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $50K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $3M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. 

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition totop plays above.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson

HIGH-RISK: Kyler Murray, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Drew Brees

RUNNING BACKS:

LOW-RISK: Austin Ekeler, James Conner, Giovani Bernard (if Mixon out)  MIXON IN, Mark Ingram II

HIGH RISK: David Johnson, Chris Carson, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Matt Breida, Devin Singletary, Damien Williams, Tarik Cohen, Derrick Henry, Todd Gurley

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Davante Adams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Dede Westbrook

HIGH RISK: Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Corey Davis, T.Y. Hilton, Mecole Hardman, DeVante Parker, Donte Moncrief, Terry McLaurin

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson

HIGH RISK: Mike Gesicki, Tyler Eifert, Jimmy Graham

DST:

LOW-RISK: Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans

HIGH-RISK: Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!