Week 17 NFL DFS Main Slate Plug

Week 17 NFL DFS Main Slate Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 17? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Patriots, -16.5
Saints, -14
Packers, -13.5
Cowboys, -13.5
Chiefs, -10

Highest Game Totals:
ATL@TB, 47.5
WAS@DAL, 46
SF@SEA, 45.5 (Yahoo!)

LAC@KC, 45.5
ARI@LAR, 45.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Patriots, 30.5
Cowboys, 29.75
Saints, 29.5

Packers, 28.5
Chiefs, 27.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Dolphins, 14
Lions, 15
Panthers, 15.5
Redskins, 16.25
Chargers, 17.75

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.

Week 17 is the most news driven regular season slate of the year – it has a lot of preseason NFL elements for that reason. A lot of teams rest players due to being either eliminated, or having seeding for the postseason locked up. 

This week, teams like the Rams, Ravens, Texans and Vikings are just some examples of that. Check out our Week 17 First Look podcast for an extended discussion on different team motivations.

We need to carefully monitor all news this week – we’ll update playing time motivation trends below as we get more information.

ATL@TB, PHI@NYG, NO@CAR 

The Falcons and Bucs actually play in Week 17 for the second season in a row, and under extremely similar circumstances. Last year’s starters played their full complement of snaps despite the 6-9 Falcons and 5-10 Buccaneers drawing dead on postseason aspirations. In fact, stacking this matchup last year won someone the DraftKings Millionaire Maker in Week 17. Will we see a repeat here?

For the final time, we’ll remind you that the Bucs are an ideal team for opponents to pass against, as they allow just 72.9 rushing yards per game to opponents – lowest in the NFL. Matt Ryan is our top ranked QB in the Occupy Model. He will look early and often for Julio Jones, who has seen an astonishing 53% of his air yards on 43 total targets in the last 3 weeks. Austin Hooper and Russell Gage are the next most likely options to be involved, as both are running routes on ~80% of Ryan’s dropbacks since Week 14 (Pro Football Focus).

Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have really changed things up for Jameis Winston. He has to rely on the likes of Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate to move the football through the air. Our Model loves Perriman this week, as he’s projected for 10.4 targets.

After a huge win against the Cowboys put them in the driver’s seat for the NFC East title, the Eagles need to bury the Giants in Week 17 to clinch their playoff berth. We don’t have to look too far into the past to see that Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley are motivated to end 2019 on a positive note – they’re coming off a big win against the Redskins. Jones has had an up-and-down season under center, but he’s shown his ceiling by scoring 30+ DraftKings points in 4 different starts. Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate should benefit the most from increased involvement in the passing game – Slayton’s work has diminished since those two returned to action, plus he has a knee injury he’s dealing with. 

Wentz benefits from a matchup against the 31st DVOA pass defense in the league in a must win spot. With Zach Ertz out, Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders are set up to be the most involved skill position players alongside him. With Ertz inactive, Goedert becomes one of the best value TEs on the entire slate. Greg Ward’s matchup in the slot is one Wentz should exploit against this weak Giants’ secondary early and often, as well.

The two teams facing off in Charlotte couldn’t have more different motivations – the Saints need a win plus some help to secure a bye week, while the Panthers will simply be 60 minutes away from vacation come kickoff. Interim Panthers’ head coach Perry Fewell plans to play to win, so unless we hear otherwise by Sunday, we should expect Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel to put in a full workload. DJ Moore is in the concussion protocol and won’t play, meaning Chris Hogan, Brandon Zylstra, or DeAndrew White are in line for more work in his place. 

The Saints’ estimated practice reports on Christmas day raised some eyebrows with both Drew Brees and Michael Thomas listed as “limited”, but Sean Payton is adamant the first string players will be out there come Sunday. Michael Thomas sits atop the Occupy Model once again, while Alvin Kamara is the latest player who will get to face the Panthers’ worst DVOA rush defense this season. Jared Cook has seen more work in recent weeks with Brees when healthy, and is probably the best bet to see the most volume behind those two in this offense.

In general, we’ve seen some outrageously large negative total moves on this slate – ATL/TB and NO/CAR both with -3 and -2.5 point moves as of writing. If this is a tell that more players are resting on Sunday than we know for sure right now, expect us to update the stack recommendations above accordingly.

TEAM MOTIVATION NOTES

Teams needing wins with playoff spots on the line:
Cowboys, Eagles, Raiders, Steelers, Titans

Teams playing for a bye:
Chiefs, Packers, Patriots, Saints (49ers & Seahawks, but not on main slate)

Teams who can’t meaningfully improve seeding:
Bills*, Ravens, Texans, Vikings

Teams confirmed resting players:
Ravens, Texans, Vikings

Teams eliminated:
Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Colts, Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Panthers, Rams, Redskins

*likely resting, not confirmed

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Patrick Mahomes (vs. LA Chargers)

Ranked in the middle of the pack in the Occupy Model, Mahomes’ Chiefs have a 27.75 point implied team total, the fifth highest on the week. Kansas City will need to play to win, as they need to defeat the Chargers for any shot at the first round bye. Mahomes will be able to take advantage of the 21st DVOA pass defense on Sunday – look for his median outcome to be around 280 yards passing and 2 touchdowns.

Stud: Ryan Tannehill (@ Houston)

Every week, Ryan Tannehill pops as a strong point per dollar value. With the Titans owning one of the highest motivation spots on the slate (win and in against the Texans), why not take that value in cash games? The Titans are 5.5 point favorites on the road against Houston – likely because Deshaun Watson is “hurt” and DeAndre Hopkins is “sick” – leaving both highly questionable for Sunday’s tilt. Tennessee’s 25 point implied team total has risen by 1 full point since lines opened, as well. Given that the Texans only have the 25th DVOA pass defense when all their starters are available, it’s an even stronger spot for Tannehill should Houston elect to fully rest up for next weekend’s likely game against Buffalo.

Value: Carson Wentz (@ NY Giants)

Our 4th highest ranked QB in the Occupy Model is playing with almost an entirely new set of players than he opened the season with. When the story of the 2019 Eagles season is written, this fact is probably something that should be taken into account heavily while evaluating Wentz’s play. Even with Greg Ward, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Dallas Goedert as primary receiving weapons, Wentz should be able to thrive against the Giants’ 31st DVOA pass defense. The Eagles have a 24.5 point implied team total in Week 17.

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (vs. New Orleans)

It truly seems like it will be all systems go for Run CMC one final time in 2019. His price remains five figures on both FanDuel and DraftKings; with all the value on the slate, he probably should be used only in high-risk contests. That’s because there is still risk that the Panthers elect to protect their asset and sit McCaffrey at some point early – especially if the game is non-competitive, or he gets the 67 receiving yards he needs for the 1,000/1,000 club quickly. His 44.0 weighted-opportunity score once again leads the Occupy Model.

Stud: Ezekiel Elliott (vs. Washington)

With Dak Prescott struggling to play through his shoulder injury, it makes all the sense in the world for the Cowboys to feed Zeke repeatedly in Week 17. The Cowboys have the 2nd best run blocking offensive line by Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, which is great news for Zeke as he also faces the Redskins’ 25th DVOA run defense. Dallas needs to win this game in order to have a chance to advance to the postseason – expect them to leave it all out on the field as a result. Elliott’s the highest projected owned RB on DraftKings for us (2nd highest on FanDuel) for tournaments this week, and carries a 33.4 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model.

Stud: Aaron Jones (@ Detroit)

Jamaal Williams is out with a shoulder injury – the same one that caused him to leave Monday night’s game early. Aaron Jones will see an even larger share of the snaps and backfield touches than normal. 

It’s a great matchup for Jones – Detroit is just 19th by DVOA against the rush, and has to trot David Blough out there one final time this season. Assuming Detroit continues to be inept at moving the football, a heavy dose of Jones could be just what Matt LaFleur conjures up to lock down one of the NFC’s coveted playoff bye weeks. Jones has a 25.7 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model.

Value: Miles Sanders (@ NY Giants)

This is Miles Sanders’ backfield now – Jordan Howard has finally been cleared for contact, but it appears the Eagles will ride the hot hand regardless. We have Sanders at a 28.5 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model for the final week of the season. It would make a ton of sense for the Eagles to emphasize the run (and use Sanders in the passing game against the 25th DVOA pass defense against RBs) with all of the other injuries to their skill position players, as well.

Value: Damien Williams (vs. LA Chargers)

Williams projects as one of the highest owned RBs on the entire slate – that’s because he slotted right back into a massive starter’s role for the Chiefs in Week 16 after a 4 week absence. His 16 carries and 3 targets out of the backfield against the Bears dwarfed the work Spencer Ware (now on IR) and Darwin Thompson (who only played when the game was no longer in doubt) received. Even with LeSean McCoy likely to be active this time around, Damien will receive the majority of the work. He logged 53% of the offensive snaps in Week 16, more than any other KC back.

Value: T.J. Yeldon (vs. NY Jets)

With Devin Singletary inactive, and Frank Gore a “starter” for them under normal circumstances, expect Yeldon to see the most work in this meaningless spot for the Bills at minimum price. The Jets are the 2nd DVOA rush defense on the season, so the matchup isn’t necessarily amazing – but volume will be there.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Michael Thomas (@ Carolina)

It has been a magical season for Michael Thomas, plain and simple. The Saints best WR has posted a 145-1688-9 line on 176 total targets. Given that the man has caught over 82% of his targets, we project Thomas for another 8-9 reception day in a must win spot against the Carolina Panthers. His role is the safest on the Saints to invest in when you consider the threat of Latavius Murray behind Alvin Kamara in the running game. He is the top (duh) WR in the Occupy Model.

Stud: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard (@ Detroit)

The Packers are in the best position to lock down a bye week in the NFC, as they face the lowly Lions as 13.5 point favorites to wrap up their season. Lest we forget – Davante Adams was the number one PPR WR in fantasy in 2018. While he missed a portion of 2019 with injuries, he’s back to playing at an elite level. Last time out, Rodgers leaned on his stud WR, targeting him 16 (!) times against the Vikings. Adams owns a massive 34% target share over the last four weeks, posting a 30-324-3 line on 45 total targets.

The only other receiver who has been remotely usable in fantasy for Green Bay in that stretch is Allen Lazard. He’s seen 18 total targets at a 13.7 yard average depth of target (aDOT). He’s a field stretcher that has stolen reliable volume away from both MVS and Geronimo Allison in this offense. He also popped close to our underperforming WR list for the final week of the season. While Adams offers the safest floor/ceiling combination for low-risk contests of all GB receivers, Lazard is a fine value play with an equally appetizing matchup here.

Value: Greg Ward (@ NY Giants)

Ward’s played a ton of football this year. Before latching on with the Eagles this preseason, he played all 8 games with the AAF’s San Antonio Commanders, posting a 22-214 line on 40 total targets. He translated that conditioning into a back-end roster spot with the Eagles, and now finds himself playing important snaps for a playoff contender in December. Last week, his huge 38 yard reception in the third quarter set up the Eagles decisive Miles Sanders’ touchdown against the Cowboys. His 71% of offensive snaps played in Week 16 led all Eagles WRs – we can assume he’s ahead of even 2nd round draft pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in the “trust tree” with head coach Doug Pederson as a result. With Ertz out, expect Ward to see a bump up in work. Right now, we project Ward for 6 targets in the Occupy Model.

Value: Javon Wims (@ Minnesota)

After leaving the game in Week 14 with a knee injury against the Cowboys, Wims seems to be back to good health. He ran a route on 84% of Trubisky’s dropbacks in Week 16 (PFF), and drew 9 targets as a result. He’s featured on our underperforming WR list at the minimum price thanks to his 39% air yard share last week. Even if we see Chase Daniel at QB for some work in a meaningless spot for these Bears, Wims is a candidate to play the majority of snaps. 

That’s because the Bears have just 6 WRs on the active roster – one of which is Taylor Gabriel (likely out), and another is special team specialist Cordarrelle Patterson. Expect a heavy dose of Wims and 4th round rookie draft pick Riley Ridley if Chicago elects to rest their starters (Robinson and Miller). We project Wims for just 3.6 targets in the Occupy Model – but remember, Week 17 is more about playing the news than just straight optimal projections.

Value: Robert Foster (vs NY Jets)

We LOVE LOVE LOVE Foster. With his 27.6 yard average depth of target (aDOT), he should lead the way for a Bills WR corps with just 3 players active in Week 17. Duke Williams and Isaiah McKenzie round out the corps with both John Brown and Cole Beasley inactive. You can use Foster easily in all types of lineups as cap relief – he’s got a much higher ceiling than Wims (but a lower floor given how he’s used). 

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (vs. LA Chargers)

With all the value available on this slate, we can actually comfortably pay up for Kelce if we choose. The Pro Bowl TE remains Mahomes’ favorite target – he has 40 total targets in the last four weeks. The Chargers have not allowed a lot of fantasy production to TEs on the season, but that doesn’t necessarily matter here. Offenses will go out and try and execute what they do well against any opponent – for Mahomes and the Chiefs, that’s getting the ball in their big, playmaking TEs hands. Kelce is projected for 8.8 targets in the Occupy Model, the most at the position.

Value: Dallas Goedert (@ NY Giants)

Three Eagles in low-risk is likely the highest you should go – so if playing both Wentz and Sanders, choose between Ward and Goedert. If you choose Goedert, no one will blame you. His 7 projected targets in the Occupy Model is the 2nd most on the slate at the position. Goedert is the only remaining player from the Week 1 starting offense for Wentz to throw to here in Week 17. He’s played over 84% of offensive snaps in the last two games, even with Ertz available. Now that Ertz is out, he’s likely the best point per dollar value at the position.

Value: O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate (vs. Atlanta)

Jameis began Week 16’s prep by telling his TEs they were going to “get the rock”, and he delivered on that promise. Howard (7) and Brate (5) combined for 25% of his targets against the Texans. This week, O.J. Howard is actually featured on our underperforming WR list – we encourage you to prioritize him as a result. Howard ran a route on 76% of Winston’s dropbacks, compared to just 45% for Brate in Week 16. We have the two TEs projected for a combined 9 total targets right now in the Occupy Model.

Note: the appeal here assumes Jameis is still good to go on Sunday. If we find out he’s being rested (he does have a thumb injury), we’d encourage simply paying up for Kelce or Goedert at TE here in low-risk.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

Note: it’s rare we’ll tell you to lock in a specific defense. This week, the Chicago Bears are extremely affordable, and facing a Sean Mannion led Vikings offense. This is a pretty easy decision. Play them liberally.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

Use 4-5% of your bankroll. This will be the final week of some juicy NFL regular season prize pools before the playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon.

This is absolutely a GPP week with all of the moving parts involved, however, if you feel like you have a good handle on how to play all the news you will have a larger edge in cash games than most other NFL weeks.

If you can settle on a build you like for low-risk contests, don’t shy away from those contests if you have the bankroll size to dip your toes in both ends of the pool here.

If playing low-risk, focus on the same spots we normally recommend – H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that.

It’s always a good idea to lock in a high volume, cheap RB in your low-risk lineup, and in the majority (if not all) of your high-risk lineups. This week, Damien Williams and DeAndre Washington (if Jacobs is out) stand out as some of the best plays to do that with.

Building 5-10-20, even 150 lineups for large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this.

Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings! Now featuring single-game contest optimization!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Occupy Fantasy Member’s League

Play our free league contest on DraftKings! Last one of the season. Winner take all, 1st place gets something special. Winner needs to DM the Occupy account on Twitter for more information. Enter the contest here. Good luck!

Smaller Bankrolls

Always, always always play freerolls. There is only one classic style one on DraftKings this week – the AutoNation Free Football Challenge.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $40K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $60K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $25K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $18K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $30K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $12K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

On DraftKings, you should continue to play satellites for Showdown Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There are also generic “NFL $3 Ticket SuperSatellite” contests – these award 4 tickets and are $0.25 single entry GPPs. This would be a great way to accumulate Pylon or Play-Action tickets. *Expect this week to be the last NFL $20 Millionaire Maker this year. Use all remaining NFL Millionaire $20 tickets on that contest.


Some cross sport satellite opportunities? The NHL $360 Spin-O-Rama, LOL $40K Opening Day 2020, the EL $5 December Friday Frenzy, the NAS $10 America’s Race in February and the TEN $15 Aussie Special.

On FanDuel, satellites for the Super Bowl LIV Single Game contest are now available! Prioritize the “NFL Big Game Bowl on 2/2” satellites – rack up as many entries as you can. This contest likely will have a million dollar grand prize. Some special contests for the first round of the NFL Playoffs also seem to be up – look at the Satellites to the NFL Saturday Million on 1/4 as an option.

Also look at the satellites for the NBA Jumbo Dunk on 1/8, NHL SUPER Goal on 1/9, NHL Super Deke on 1/14, NBA Spectacular Slam on 1/15, the NHL SUPER Monster on 1/16, TEN SUPER Smash on 1/19, NHL NBA Legendary Layup on 1/22, NBA Epic Monster on 1/28, NHL Super Crossbar on 2/4, NBA Hang Time on 2/5, NBA MEGA Monster on 2/21, NBA $1M Alley Oop on 2/26 and PGA MEGA Eagle on 4/9.


Don’t forget we have NBA and NHL Models for you to use for those contests – there will be an NBA Daily Plug as well on all slates with 6+ NBA games.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $125K Red Zone stand out. The $100 entry fee $300K Spy awards $50,000 to 1st place, and is a small 3,333 person field (there is also a $50K Spy with a 555 person field).

For FanDuel users, the best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $70K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $55K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $40K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $300K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $50,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $50K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

The $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire is a $20 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $1,000,000 top prize. We like to say don’t play these contests with your own money without being able to max enter, so unless you’re a big baller, use your satellite tickets only for this.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $300K Slant this week. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $30,000 top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.25M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $200,000 top-prize.

The $333K Sun NFL Bomb is a $55 entry fee, 150-max GPP that offers $100,000 to 1st place that is also a decent GPP to consider for you.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

HIGH-RISK: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Daniel Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Jameis Winston

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, DeAndre Washington, James White, Melvin Gordon III, Gus Edwards, Ryquell Armstead, T.J. Yeldon

HIGH-RISK: Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Austin Ekeler, Adrian Peterson, Devin Singletary (if active), Joe Mixon, Patrick Laird, Nick Chubb, Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, Ronald Jones II, Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, Mike Boone, Marlon Mack, Chris Thompson, Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, Justice Hill, Boston Scott

Fournette OUT.

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Allen Robinson, Julian Edelman, Breshad Perriman, Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Robert Foster

HIGH RISK: DeAndre Hopkins (if active), Julio Jones, DeVante Parker, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, A.J. Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Anthony Miller, Kenny Golladay, Amari Cooper, Courtland Sutton, Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry, T.Y. Hilton, John Ross, Keenan Allen, James Washington, Golden Tate, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Danny Amendola, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Diontae Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Russell Gage, Hunter Renfrow, Justin Watson, Chris Conley, Jarius Wright, N’Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Tajae Sharpe, Robert Foster, Mohamed Sanu, Steven Sims Jr.

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: John Ross, James Washington, Robert Foster, Allen Robinson, Javon Wims, Michael Gallup, Tyler Lockett (Yahoo!), T.Y. Hilton, Jarius Wright, Odell Beckham Jr, Jack Doyle (TE), Curtis Samuel, Jordan Akins (TE), Mohamed Sanu, O.J. Howard (TE), Golden Tate

JUST MISSED: Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen, DJ Chark, Jarvis Landry, Christian Kirk, DeAndrew White, Amari Cooper, Allen Lazard

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Jack Doyle, Jordan Akins

HIGH RISK: Austin Hooper, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, Kaden Smith, Mike Gesicki

DST:

LOW-RISK: Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles

HIGH-RISK: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!