Week 17 – DFS Recap

Week 17 – DFS Recap

The playoff field is set! What looks to be an exciting 2017 NFL postseason lies ahead. Fan favorites like Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Doug Baldwin, Keenan Allen, Jimmy Graham, and Melvin Gordon won’t be available to us any longer as Seattle and Los Angeles failed to qualify for the Wild Card round. Instead, we get more exposure to Atlanta, Buffalo and Tennessee for at least one more set of games.

Here’s how our picks for Week 17 went, and what we can learn (if anything) from their performances:

Quarterback

STUD – Matt Ryan (vs. Carolina) – 28/45, 317 yards, 1 TD | 3 carries, 14 yards
VALUE – Patrick Mahomes II (@ Denver) – 22/35, 284 yards, 1 INT | 7 carries, 10 yards

Ryan delivered the performance Atlanta needed to clinch an appearance in the 2017 NFL playoffs. His 7.04 yards per attempt actually underperformed his season long average by 9.9% on the day, but the 45 attempts made up the difference. Ryan threw 30.8% more passes than expected in this one based on Carolina’s year long average, due in large part to the inability of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to get anything done on the ground. Ryan draws the Los Angeles Rams on Wild Card weekend, the third best DVOA passing defense of 2017. I recommend probably steering clear of that one.

Patrick is Mahomes! But he wasn’t my daily fantasy tournament winning quarterback in Week 17. Mahomes delivered an impressive 8.11 yards per attempt – 12.4% better than his preseason average this season. Unfortunately, no touchdowns accompanied his performance in this one. He did, however, lead an impressive game winning drive to set up a Harrison Butker field goal, going 4-5 for 52 yards. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs decide to move forward with him in 2018 over veteran Alex Smith, who will resume the quarterback duties against Tennessee next weekend in the playoffs.

Running Back

STUD – LeSean McCoy (@ Miami) – 11 carries, 10 yards | 2 catches, 22 yards on 3 targets
VALUE – Carlos Hyde (@ LA Rams) – 15 carries, 90 yards, 2 TD | 2 catches, 10 yards on 4 targets 

LeSean McCoy was carted off the field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami in the third quarter with an ankle injury that seriously threatens his ability to help Buffalo in the playoffs. Before he hurt the ankle, he earned his usual massive workload, and did nothing with it, averaging 0.91 yards per carry. Yuck. Maybe Miami just had his number this season, he as he only earned 60 yards on his 31 carries in both matchups in 2017.

Hyde was an absolute monster in Week 17 as the 49ers trounced the junior varsity Rams. His 6 yards per carry and two touchdowns made him an absolute steal at his price in this one. Hyde scored 4 of his 8 rushing touchdowns in 2017 against these Rams. If this was his last game as a 49er, he definitely left San Francisco fans with a reminder of who he was at his best. He’ll be 28 years old in 2018, and should have plenty of gas left in the tank.

Wide Receiver

STUD – Julio Jones (vs. Carolina) – 5 catches, 80 yards on 11 targets
VALUE – Will Fuller V (@ Indianapolis) – 2 catches, 17 yards on 2 targets

Julio was targeted on 24.4% of Ryan’s attempts in Week 17, which was actually identical to the workload Devonta Freeman and Mohamed Sanu also received. Julio had a scare early in this one, exiting the game briefly with an injury. Julio enters the playoffs as probably one of the most undervalued top flight receivers in daily fantasy – his target share remains high, and his elite ability to make plays was on full display this season. Unfortunately, the touchdowns just didn’t materialize. Julio should be an undervalued asset heading in to 2018 as well for the same reason.

Fuller left this game early with a knee injury, which is too bad. Yates was looking for him early, connecting with him on both of his targets. Fuller and Hopkins should be productive fantasy players in 2018 with DeShaun Watson back under center.

Tight End

STUD – Greg Olsen (@ Atlanta) – 1 catch, 10 yards on 9 targets

Olsen was on the field yet again for over 90% of the snaps, playing 93% in Week 17. His 9 targets were the most from Cam Newton in this game. He should be on the daily fantasy radar on Wild Card weekend for that reason alone.

VALUE – Jesse James (vs. Cleveland) – 2 catches, 9 yards on 2 targets

Landry Jones honed in on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant in Week 17, leaving very little opportunity for either James or Vance McDonald to produce from the tight end position. We say goodbye to the 0-16 Cleveland Browns for good, and goodbye to the easy tight end matchup for the season.