Week 15 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 15 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 15? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
49ers, -12
Chiefs, -11.5
Patriots, -11.5
Raiders, -7
Seahawks, -7

Highest Game Totals:
HOU@TEN, 51.5
SEA@CAR, 49
CLE@ARI, 49
ATL@SF, 48.5
LAR@DAL, 48.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
49ers, 30.25
Chiefs, 28.25
Seahawks, 28
Titans, 27.25
Raiders, 26.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Bengals, 15
Broncos, 16.75
Redskins, 16.75
Bears, 18.25
Falcons, 18.25

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more.

We’re officially in the home stretch of the NFL season – we need to be mindful of teams that have very little to play for. In addition to players on the just plain bad teams, star players we’ve used all year on teams like the Buccaneers, Chargers, Falcons, Jaguars and Panthers are more high-risk than normal now that their teams are eliminated from the postseason. 

We need to more carefully monitor the news out of those markets to see what teams plan to do now for that reason. 

SEA@CAR, HOU@TEN, LAR@DAL

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks head to Carolina to face the Panthers, where they are touchdown favorites. Wilson is our top ranked QB in the Occupy Model, however, he does project to play under duress, as the Panthers generate pressure on 29% of their defensive snaps. Christian McCaffrey is our top ranked RB on FanDuel and DraftKings by a wide margin, while Chris Carson’s opportunity projects to increase with Rashaad Penny on the shelf.

Our “underperforming WR” list has been doing well lately – this week, two of them are in this game – Tyler Lockett and Curtis Samuel. D.J. Moore and DK Metcalf both project for 6+ targets, as well. Jacob Hollister and Ian Thomas are also strong pay-down TE options; each project to see more targets than any other TE in their salary tier in our Model. 5-8 Carolina’s motivation to win is on notice here, though.

A resurgent Ryan Tannehill leads the Titans into battle against Deshaun Watson and the Texans – this is a matchup we’ll get 2 times in the next 3 weeks as each squad vies for the AFC South title. Each signal caller projects to see relatively low pressure this week. This matchup also has the highest Vegas total on the slate, which is likely why each QB projects to be one of the top 4 highest owned at the position (Tannehill highest overall).

Derrick Henry missed practice all week, but it appears that this was just some NFL-style “load management” – Henry says he thinks he’ll be fine. Adam Humphries is out for TEN, which means A.J. Brown and Corey Davis will be Tannehill’s main WRs. While Brown’s target share has ballooned to 25% in the last four weeks, his salary has also increased a ton for a player who has seen more than 5 targets just 3 times on the year. The “leverage” play that will save you some salary dollars? Corey Davis, who has a 13.3 yard average depth of target (aDOT) and a 20% share of Tannehill’s air yards (Brown’s share is 33%) since he returned in Week 12.

On the Houston side, DeAndre Hopkins is the top WR in the Occupy Model, projected for 11.2 targets. Duke Johnson Jr should see an increased target share if Will Fuller misses once again – the Titans are just 23rd by DVOA against RBs in the passing game.

The Rams need to win out and get some help to actually make the postseason. The Cowboys need to win some games to fend off the Eagles in their bid for the NFC East title. As a result, this late window game features two highly productive offenses with plenty of motivation to succeed – something we have to be extra sensitive to this late in the season.

Dak Prescott projects to be the second highest owned QB on the slate, but may very well face the most pressure from this Rams’ defense as well. It’s not much better for Jared Goff on that front, as the Cowboys are also in the top 5 for pressures generated in our Model. When defenses bring pressure, however, it usually opens things downfield for QBs who can find their favorite targets. Robert Woods, Michael Gallup, Cooper Kupp and Amari Cooper each project for 7+ targets in our Model, while Jason Witten and Tyler Higbee are firmly in play at TE. The Rams have seen the biggest team total increase in Week 15 – their total has increased by 2.25 points in betting markets.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Russell Wilson (@ Carolina)

Our top ranked QB in the Occupy Model, Wilson and the Seahawks are in the midst of a battle for the NFC West title (and maybe overall home field advantage) that will go right down to the wire, as they play the 49ers in Week 17. Motivation for Seattle to win is extremely high. Seattle’s 28 point implied team total has risen by 1.25 points since lines opened, as well. Coming off of a primetime dud game against the Rams, we have an opportunity to play a star QB (and efficient passer) like Wilson at lower ownership.

Stud: Ryan Tannehill (vs. Houston)

The Titans and Texans enter the last three weeks of play tied at 8-5, with 2 head-to-head games to close out the season. We should expect this matchup to be popular, as it’s one of the rare late season spots where both teams still have something to play for.

Tannehill’s thrown for an absurdly efficient 9.8 yards per attempt on the season – this explains how he’s been able to put up big fantasy numbers despite low passing volume. He’s been under 30 attempts in 6 of his 8 starts. In Week 15, he draws a Texans team that is just 27th by DVOA against the pass – meaning his odds of continuing to play at an elite level are pretty high. With Derrick Henry unable to practice all week (but expected to play), this might even be a spot where the Titans pass more in order to manage Henry’s workload. Unfortunately, we’ll have to pay for Tannehill this week – this is the most expensive he’s been all season.

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (vs. Seattle)

Remember when Carolina was 5-3, and CMC was getting some play in the media as an MVP candidate? Welp – they’ve lost 5 straight games, proving once again that even all-time great seasons from RBs can’t overcome poor QB play. McCaffrey’s play has been awesome – he vows to give 100% on all plays – even still, we have to wonder if Carolina will continue to give their 23 year old star the same volume as the season winds down.

If there’s anything left to play for, it’s the 1,000/1,000 club – he’s 224 receiving yards away from having 1,000+ yards rushing and receiving. For now, he’s firmly in play as a top option in this offense. We project an absurdly high 44.2 weighted-opportunities for CMC in the Occupy Model.

Stud:  Saquon Barkley (vs. Miami)

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Saquon featured in a Plug – his 2019 campaign was derailed by a high-ankle sprain that forced him to miss 3 games. His performance since returning in Week 7? He has just one game with more than 17 fantasy points, and just one game with 100+ scrimmage yards. The good news? His usage is back to an elite level. He has earned 78% of the carries in the last four weeks, as well as a 14% target share.

We project 33.9 weighted-opportunities for Barkley this week. His matchup with the Dolphins also gives us the best chance of seeing a Saquon ceiling game we’ve had in weeks – Miami is 29th by DVOA against the rush, and 32nd against RBs in the passing game. As a home favorite, Saquon is a great stud RB to use to anchor your low-risk builds in Week 15.

Stud:  Chris Carson (@ Carolina)

An unfortunate ACL injury to Rashaad Penny makes Carson a much stronger play than he’s been in weeks – Seattle is a 7 point favorite against the Panthers, and Carson’s 31.3 weighted-opportunity projection in the Occupy Model is the 5th highest on the slate. With only C.J. Prosise (who has never seen more than 30 carries in an entire season) and rookie Travis Homer behind Carson, expect Carson to be the focal point of Seattle’s run-first offense.

Value: Todd Gurley (@ Dallas)

Now that Sean McVay is on the record that he’s not being an idiot and will give Gurley more work, we should take a longer look at the under-priced star RB on DraftKings (his FanDuel price is much higher). 

His 26.6 projected weighted-opportunities will come in ideal conditions at Jerry World against the Cowboys – who are just 19th by DVOA against the run, allowing 109.8 rushing yards to their opponents per game. Gurley has had 73 of LA’s 108 total carries since Week 11, while playing 80% or more of the offensive snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. With this game now a “pick-em” in betting markets, the Rams implied team total has increased by 2.25 points – the most on the entire slate.

Value: Raheem Mostert (vs. Atlanta)

The 5th year tailback has given head coach Kyle Shanahan “no choice” but to play him more. As the new lead back for the biggest favorite on the slate, we too have no choice but to consider Mostert as a staple of our low-risk lineups in Week 15 at his price. Mostert’s played 74% and 59% of the snaps (his highest shares on the year) in back-to-back weeks, and now draws a matchup against a Falcons team with absolutely nothing to play for.

Despite his high snap counts, Mostert hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in a game since Week 2 (where he saw 4, womp). While his low price makes him attractive on DraftKings, he’s even better on FanDuel where the scoring system is tilted more in favor of touchdown production.

Wide Receiver

Stud: DeAndre Hopkins (@ Tennessee)

The top WR in the Occupy Model, we also project Hopkins to see 11.2 targets against the Titans. The Texans move Hopkins all over the field. He runs 38% of his routes (Pro Football Focus) out of the slot, where the Titans are 32nd by DVOA against WRs in 2019. If Will Fuller is inactive again, Hopkins will be one of the most popular all-around plays on the slate for good reason – he’s the 3rd highest scoring PPR WR so far in the 2019 season.

Stud: Chris Godwin (@ Detroit)

Godwin’s Bucs are drawing dead – they can only top out at 9-7 this season, which won’t be enough to qualify for postseason play. Jameis Winston is slated to start, however, which means we should anticipate all systems go for Tampa Bay’s productive offense for at least one more week. With Mike Evans out for the season after suffering a hamstring injury last week, Godwin should see increased work. No WR has a higher ceiling than Godwin on this main slate – he’s got three games with 30+ PPR fantasy points on the season, and that was with Mike Evans on the field. We project 8.4 targets for Godwin against the Lions.

Value: D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (vs. Seattle)

When he’s not throwing interceptions, Kyle Allen is throwing deep down field to Curtis Samuel – one of our underperforming WRs on the Week 15 slate. Over the last four weeks, Samuel has a 16.3 yard aDOT on his 21 targets, but just 124 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. D.J. Moore continues to be quite the compiler – he’s doubled Samuel’s target share over the same time frame, while posting a 24-377-3 line. Moore’s efficiency may lead you to think Samuel’s workload has been smaller than the underlying usage outlined above. Moore’s floor and ceiling combination makes him attractive for all contest types, but Samuel’s similar upside at a much lower salary should be our focus in tournaments.

Value: Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon (vs. Philadelphia)

As 5 point underdogs, expect the Redskins to be forced to throw against the Eagles all day. Terry McLaurin’s anticipated matchup with Ronald Darby is juicy – we project 6.9 targets for the rookie this week. While he hasn’t reached a true ceiling since his 4-100-2 game against Miami in Week 6, this spot is one of the best he’s seen in weeks, as Philadelphia is just 21st by DVOA against WR1s.

Harmon should continue to see increased work with Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson banged up – he’s run a route on 100% of Haskins dropbacks over the last two weeks. Each of these WRs is on our underperforming WR list in Week 15, as well.

Tight End

Stud: Zach Ertz (@ Washington)

With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on IR, Jordan Matthews signed and released, Nelson Agholor and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside banged up, the Eagles are down to just former San Antonio Commander Greg Ward and recent practice squad activation Robert Davis at WR.

This likely locks in even more 12 personnel (two TE set) usage for the Eagles with both Ertz and Goedert. Washington is 31st in the NFL defending TEs this season – something the Eagles would have likely looked to exploit even when healthy. We have Ertz projected for 9 targets in the Occupy Model, the most at the position.

Value: Darren Waller (vs. Jacksonville)

As the lone TE on our “underperforming WR” list, Waller should be prioritized in high-risk contests. He projects for 7.4 targets in the Occupy Model. With Tyrell Williams dealing with plantar fasciitis and Hunter Renfrow still recovering from a punctured lung, Waller is the best bet for any kind of volume in the passing game. The woefully inept Jaguars have allowed 40+ points in 2 of the last 3 games, and are 30th by DVOA against the position.

 

Value: Jacob Hollister (@ Carolina)

Hollister has seen 6+ targets in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and has 4 red zone targets since Week 11 – but no touchdowns on those targets. He’s the best bet to catch a touchdown pass from Wilson in that portion of the field as a result. In a week where there are several “pay up” options in play at the position, Hollister may go under owned as a nice cheap stacking option with our top QB on the slate.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

Use 4-5% of your bankroll.

It’s really easy to build a lot of game stack lineups we like with the salaries this week. As a result, this is more of a tournament week – any time we can fit the optimal plays from the Occupy Model around high-risk stacks, we’ll want more tournament allocation than normal. Perfect timing for this – this is a big GPP week for satellite ticket winners!

If you can settle on a build you like for low-risk contests, don’t shy away from those contests if you have the bankroll size to dip your toes in both ends of the pool here.

If playing low-risk, focus on the same spots we normally recommend – H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that.

It’s always a good idea to lock in a high volume, cheap RB in your low-risk lineup, and in the majority (if not all) of your high-risk lineups.

Building 5-10-20, even 150 lineups for large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this.

Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings! Now featuring single-game contest optimization!

WFFC FAN CHAMPIONSHIP

If you’re playing in this contest thanks to some tickets you won, congratulations! This is a huge chance to boost your bankroll. With just 19.4% of the field being paid out, this contest deserves a super high-risk approach.

Construct your lineups by using the 3 game stack options above. We recommend using “3-1” game stacks on FanDuel, so that means a QB with 2 of his teammates, then with the strongest skill position player on the other side of the game as the “1” side of the stack.

Fill out the rest of your pass catchers exclusively from our “underperforming WR” list below (if you can game stack using some of these WRs, even better). Then, fit some of the top ranked players in the Occupy Model at the other remaining positions in your lineup.

This is the exact same FanDuel strategy our CEO, Brian Jester, used to win his way to the WFFC Live Final in Puerto Rico.

UPDATE: This went well:

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

Always, always always play freerolls. Once again, there are two on DraftKings this week – the Straight Cash Free Contest Series, and the AutoNation Free Football Challenge.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $50K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $60K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $20K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $16K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $35K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $12K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

On DraftKings, you should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There are also generic “NFL $3 Ticket SuperSatellite” contests – these award 4 tickets and are $0.25 single entry GPPs. This would be a great way to accumulate Pylon or Play-Action tickets.

There is also an NBA Holiday BBall Millionaire contest that has satellites available on DraftKings now for some cross-sport opportunity – you have several weeks to rack up tickets for this. Other strong cross-sport satellite opportunities? The NHL $360 Spin-O-Rama, The NHL 12-19 Waffleboard, EPL $100K Boxing Day Classic, LOL $40K Opening Day 2020, the EL $5 December Friday Frenzy, the NAS $10 America’s Race in February and the TEN $15 Aussie Special.

On FanDuel, satellites for the Super Bowl LIV Single Game contest are now available! Prioritize the “NFL Big Game Bowl on 2/2” satellites – rack up as many entries as you can.

Also look at the satellites for the NBA $1M Alley Oop on 12/18, NHL Super Crossbar on 12/19, NBA EPIC Monster on 12/20, NBA Santa Slam on 12/25, NBA Jumbo Dunk on 1/8, NHL SUPER Goal on 1/9, NHL Super Deke on 1/14, NBA Spectacular Slam on 1/15, the NHL SUPER Monster on 1/16, TEN SUPER Smash on 1/19, NBA Legendary Layup on 1/22, NBA Hang Time on 2/5, and PGA MEGA Eagle on 4/9.

Don’t forget we have NBA and NHL Models for you to use for those contests – there will be an NBA Daily Plug as well on all slates with 6+ NBA games.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1M Champ Series Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here. Note: DraftKings is running a Championship Series promo for the next two weeks, with achievement based freerolls available.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone stand out. The $100 entry fee $300K Spy awards $50,000 to 1st place, and is a small 3,333 person field (there is also a $50K Spy with a 555 person field).

For FanDuel users, the best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $60K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $55K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $40K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $100K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $2.75M Champ Series Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different. Note: if you’ve been saving your Milly Maker tickets, time is running out! They’ll expire before the next NFL season rolls around. Just FYI.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $350K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $35K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.25M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $250,000 top-prize.

The $3.5M WFFC Fan Championship is here! It offers $1 million to first place! We hope you won tickets to this GPP throughout the season. If you didn’t, you can buy in at $250 per entry now. This is also a 150 max GPP.  With a field of just 15,000 contestants, this is one of the “easier” opportunities to become a DFS millionaire we’ll get!

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes II

HIGH-RISK: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson, Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, James White, Dalvin Cook, Phillip Lindsay

HIGH-RISK: Patrick Laird, Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon III, Nick Chubb, Adrian Peterson, Kenyan Drake, David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Ronald Jones II, Kareem Hunt, Chris Thompson, Tarik Cohen, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson Jr, Josh Jacobs, Boston Scott, David Johnson, C.J. Prosise

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Julian Edelman, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Chris Conley

HIGH-RISK: Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker (if active), Anthony Miller, Kenny Golladay, DK Metcalf, Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, Odell Beckham Jr,  Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Dede Westbrook, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Russell Gage, Allen Hurns, Randall Cobb, Danny Amendola, Breshad Perriman, John Ross, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyrell Williams, Darius Slayton, Corey Davis

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Chris Conley, Kelvin Harmon, Curtis Samuel, Stefon Diggs, Tyrell Williams, Julio Jones, Christian Blake, Jakobi Meyers, Christian Kirk, Darren Waller (TE), Tyreek Hill

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert

HIGH RISK: David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee

DST:

LOW-RISK: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots

HIGH-RISK: Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!