Week 14 NFL DFS Main Slate Plug

Week 14 NFL DFS Main Slate Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 14? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Packers, -14
Vikings, -13.5
Texans, -10.5
Browns, -8.5
Ravens, -6

Highest Game Totals:
KC@NE, 49
TEN@OAK, 47.5
CAR@ATL, 47
IND@TB, 47
MIA@NYJ, 45.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Vikings, 28.5
Packers, 27.75
Texans, 26.5
Patriots, 26
Jets, 25.5

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Redskins, 13.75
Lions, 15
Broncos, 16
Bengals, 16.5
Bills, 19

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

PIT@ARI, IND@TB, MIA@NYJ

For those who can’t believe this section doesn’t feature KC@NE, or CAR@ATL – understand we have a heavily researched and back tested Model that we trust, and that also sent our CEO to the WFFC live final presented by FanDuel next weekend! 

While there are other games to stack, these are the three the Occupy Model leads us to for Week 14.

Devlin Hodges and the Steelers travel to Arizona, where they look to keep their AFC playoff hopes alive against the Cardinals. Arizona has been  a mouth-watering opponent to see on the calendar for offenses this season – teams average 307.5 passing yards per game, and 118.8 rushing yards per game against them. So while this game has a low 43 point total, the modest salaries on the Pittsburgh side and Arizona’s inept defensive performance puts it on our radar.

James Washington, Diontae Johnson (on our underperforming list) and Vance McDonald are the best pass catching options to pair with Hodges, while rookie Benny Snell has seen 16+ carries (but only 1 target per game) in each of the last two weeks. On the Arizona side, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk offer the most upside, as Pittsburgh is just 32nd by DVOA defending slot WRs.

It’s now 4 straight weeks of 6+ targets and no touchdowns for Mike Evans of the Buccaneers. He’s atop our underperforming WRs list for that reason this week. Given how friendly the Tampa Bay offense is to high scoring fantasy purposes, we always love stacking their games. The Colts are decimated by injury, with Eric Ebron, TY Hilton and Chester Rogers all out. This means Jacoby Brissett will have a much tighter allocation of passes to Zach Pascal (underperforming WR), Jack Doyle, and freshly healthy Parris Campbell. Marlon Mack returns to action in Week 14, but as we’ve told you all season, running on the Bucs is no easy feat. In addition to Evans, Chris Godwin remains a top option in that offense, and is the “leverage” play this week at likely lower ownership. 

If it seems like a Dolphins game stack ends up being one of the best lineups over and over again season – it’s because its true! This week, the Jets get another crack at Miami, which means Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are all strong passing game options. With Le’Veon Bell, Demaryius Thomas and Ryan Griffin all questionable, we will have to monitor statuses up until lock on the New York side. Miami’s pass game offense flows through DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki in recent weeks – they have 67 of the 154 total targets since Week 10 combined. At RB, Patrick Laird steps into the anticipated starter’s role in the backfield with Ballage on IR – he’s 5th in our Model on DraftKings (15th FanDuel) with a 24.5 weighted opportunity score.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas remain playable in all formats. Ok? More compelling spots for analysis below:

Quarterback

Stud: Deshaun Watson (vs. Denver)

The easy way out of this stud section is to tell you to play Lamar Jackson (which might be the move here still, honestly). Watson’s Texans have the 4th highest team total of Week 14, and he ranks 2nd in the Occupy Model at the position. Houston’s team total has risen by 1.75 points since lines opened, as well. While the Broncos haven’t been the easiest matchup for QBs on the year, we should take notice after a QB of Watson’s caliber plays with ease against the Patriots (28.86 DraftKings points). In fact, Watson’s gone 37-55 for 532 yards, 5 TDs and just 1 INT since his Week 11 dud against the Ravens. Watson’s ability to connect with both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V on deep passes, as well as his rushing upside makes him a phenomenal mid-range low-risk QB for Week 14.

Value: Ryan Tannehill (@ Oakland)

Tannehill is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is… Derrick Henry? We know the Tennessee RB has big play ability, and maybe the threat of that is what has led to such success for Tannehill in 2019. The Titans’ QB is coming off of a 33.36 DraftKings point performance against Jacksonville, and is a 2.5 point favorite on the road against the Raiders in Week 14. Tannehill continues to make sense as a “pay down” option at QB for low-risk contests against Oakland’s 28th DVOA pass defense.

Running Back

Stud?: Dalvin Cook (vs. Detroit)

At the moment, Cook projects for the highest ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings in our Model. With a 27.0 weighted-opportunity score, and playing at home as a 13.5 point favorite, Cook should be an easy plug and play against the Lions. The problem? With a perfectly healthy and capable Alexander Mattison lurking behind him, and that pesky “pain tolerance” issue with his shoulder, we simply cannot anticipate a full game’s worth of work for Cook if the anticipated game script (Vikings blowout) plays out. This is the rare occasion, therefore, where we’re writing up a player to tell you to fade him in low-risk contests in favor of the other options listed below.

Stud:  Leonard Fournette (vs. LA Chargers)

Lenny is our 3rd favorite RB on DraftKings, and 2nd on FanDuel this week. He’s projected for 37.8 weighted opportunities – 2nd only to McCaffrey in Week 14. Fournette’s lack of touchdown production has kept his DFS salaries in check – he’s a phenomenal value even in the $7,000 range on both sites as a result. The Chargers give up 109.9 yards on the ground to their opponents on average this season. With 5+ receptions in 5 straight games, Fournette has demonstrated he has access to an elite floor/ceiling combination – something we want to lock in at the RB position in all types of lineup builds.

Value: Devonta Freeman (vs. Carolina)

Freeman’s been underwhelming all season, but he immediately saw 31.15 weighted opportunities (17 carries, 5 targets) on Thanksgiving against the Saints in his return to action. He is the only home favorite RB we can project for over 25 weighted opportunities for $6,000 or less on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Carolina is still 32nd by DVOA against RBs on the season – making this an even easier spot to lock Freeman in as a result.

Value: Patrick Laird (@ NY Jets)

It’s actually Patrick Laird week, this isn’t a joke.

With Kalen Ballage on IR, Miami’s backfield is down to Laird, Myles Gaskin, and Ravens preseason stud De’Lance Turner. Laird’s cracked the lineup since mid November, and played a season-high 59% of the snaps in Week 13. His 10 carries and 5 targets indicate he’s the next man up for the Dolphins as they prep for a divisional road game against the Jets. We’re not sure if he’s really our Laird and savoir, but we do have him projected for 24.5 weighted opportunities – an elite potential workload for a player at his low salary. The Jets are the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL this season by DVOA, but just 20th against RBs in the passing game.

NFL If/Then Specials: Bilal Powell (vs. Miami), DeAndre Washington (vs. Tennessee)

These two only become low-risk plays if we get news their teammates ahead of them are inactive.

Le’Veon Bell seems far more likely to miss on Sunday, having missed two late week practices with an illness. Bilal Powell has seen 6+ touches in four straight games, so he seems to be the best bet to have increased work for the Jets if this plays out. As 5.5 point favorites at home against the Dolphins, Powell would be a must start in low-risk contests if Bell misses. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Bell has officially been ruled OUT

DeAndre Washington is the more traditional north-south runner for the Raiders, with Jalen Richard filling more of a passing down role. If Jacobs is out (he’s playing through a shoulder injury), Washington is more likely to see more work on the ground. Regardless of who is in the backfield, the underdog Raiders may have a harder time generating a ground attack due to offensive line woes.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Davante Adams (vs. Washington)

Back to the well with Davante, who gave us a solid 6-64-2 performance at snowy MetLife Stadium in Week 13. The Packers WR1 has a massive 33% share of Rodgers’ targets since Week 10, and now faces the Redskins at home. Green Bay has the second highest implied team total on the slate. With a 10.2 target projection in the Occupy Model, Adams should figure to be heavily involved in helping Green Bay realize their implied total come Sunday.

Stud: Julian Edelman (vs. Kansas City)

Disgustingly underpriced this week, Julian Edelman has seen double digit targets for 7 straight weeks. He also leads the entire NFL with 18 red zone targets in 2019. With Tom Brady’s frustration with his new teammates well documented since Sunday’s loss to the Texans, expect Edelman to (once again) play through his questionable tag and find a way to be Brady’s most productive WR. 

Edelman’s “floor” has been 13.7 DraftKings points over the last eight weeks. The Chiefs are 26th by Football Outsiders’ DVOA defending slot WRs in 2019 – this also happens to be where Edelman runs the majority of his routes from. Jules is one of the highest floor WRs in the NFL. He’s even more attractive as the target leader for a home favorite playing in the highest total game on the slate. We project 9.6 targets for Edelman in Week 14 – he also appears on our underperforming WR list below.

Value: Courtland Sutton (@ Houston)

Sutton’s DraftKings price has reached a season-high $6,400 – which is still a bargain given the context of his role in this offense. Rookie QB Drew Lock continued to target Sutton more than any other WR Denver has on the roster – his passing volume evaporated in the 2nd half with the Broncos controlling the pace of the game. As a road underdog against playoff hopeful Houston, it seems less likely Lock will be able to do that in Week 14. Sutton’s 57% share of Lock’s air yards last week indicate that we should expect him to continue to be a downfield threat in this offense. Sutton has seen less than 5 targets… ZERO times in 2019. The 2nd year WR is a fine play as he wraps up his campaign this December.

Value: Mike Williams (@ Jacksonville)

A lot of season long owners are undoubtedly frustrated with their Mike Williams investments – the WR has followed up last year’s 10 touchdown performance with 0.0 touchdowns thus far. Williams has seen 11 red zone targets, however, including 3 inside the opponents 5 yard line. To say Williams is due to score, therefore, would be an understatement here. Williams has a 15% share of Rivers’ targets over the last four weeks – with a massive 40% share of his air yards. We project 6 targets for Williams in Week 14 – he’s one of the best value WRs on our “underperforming WR” list on the slate, as well.

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (@ New England)

The TE position continues to be one of the best ways to attack New England’s defense through the air – the Texans were able to get Darren Fells into the end zone on Sunday night. That makes 4 out of the last 5 games where a TE has scored on this defense (Dallas scored no touchdowns in Week 12). Kelce continues to dominate red zone opportunities for the Chiefs, with 15 targets in the scoring area on the season (3 inside the opponents 5 yard line). Expect Mahomes to try and feed his All Pro TE early and often at Gillette Stadium. We project him for 8.4 targets in the Occupy Model.

Value: Jack Doyle (@ Tampa Bay)

Fresh off a contract extension, Doyle faces the 29th ranked TE defense in one of our favorite spots on the entire slate. With a 7.5 target projection in the Occupy Model, he’s got the 2nd highest workload projection at a fraction of Kelce’s cost. With Ebron no longer available, Doyle’s usage skyrocketed – he played a season-high 94% of the snaps in Week 13, drawing 11 targets against the Titans.  There’s no reason to expect his usage goes down in Week 14.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

4-5%. NFL Sundays offer big prizes, so we want to go a little heavier than we would on main slates in other sports. This feels like more of a high-risk week with all of the uncertainty at RB.

If you can settle on a build you like for low-risk contests, continue to play 60-70% of your allocation in low-risk, and take some careful shots for your bankroll tier (recommendations below) at tournaments with the other 30-40%. As always, if you can’t find a low-risk lineup you like – just play tournaments!

For low risk, remember to focus on H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

This week, injury reporting news is important. We have a real chance that both Le’Veon Bell and Josh Jacobs could miss their teams’ games. If that happens, two bargain bin RBs with reasonable volume projections will be available at low salary. We’ll want to use one (if not both) of those guys if it opens up – Bilal Powell and DeAndre Washington. As a home favorite, Powell should be the priority.

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

It’s always a good idea to lock in a high volume, cheap RB in your low-risk lineup, and in the majority (if not all) of your high-risk lineups. Devonta Freeman looks like the best option for that – for now.

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings! Now featuring single-game contest optimization!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

Always, always always play freerolls. There are two on DraftKings this week – the Straight Cash Free Contest Series, and the AutoNation Free Football Challenge.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $50K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $80K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $25K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $20K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $35K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $15K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

On DraftKings, you should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There are also generic “NFL $3 Ticket SuperSatellite” contests – these award 4 tickets and are $0.25 single entry GPPs. This would be a great way to accumulate Pylon or Play-Action tickets.

There is also an NBA Holiday BBall Millionaire contest that has satellites available on DraftKings now for some cross-sport opportunity – you have several weeks to rack up tickets for this. Other strong cross-sport satellite opportunities? The NHL $360 Spin-O-Rama, The NHL 12-19 Waffleboard, EPL $100K Boxing Day Classic, LOL $40K Opening Day 2020, the EL $5 December Friday Frenzy, the NAS $10 America’s Race in February and the TEN $15 Aussie Special.

On FanDuel, look at the satellites for the NHL Super Deke on 12/10, NBA Hang Time on 12/11, NHL SUPER Monster on 1/16, NBA $1M Alley Oop on 12/18, NHL Super Crossbar on 12/19, NBA EPIC Monster on 12/20, NBA Santa Slam on 12/25, NBA Jumbo Dunk on 1/8, NHL SUPER Goal on 1/9, NBA Spectacular Slam on 1/15 and TEN SUPER Smash on 1/19. Obviously, we like the satellites for the WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 as well.

Don’t forget we have NBA and NHL Models for you to use for those contests – there will be an NBA Daily Plug as well on all slates with 6+ NBA games.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone stand out. The $100 entry fee $300K Spy awards $50,000 to 1st place, and is a small 3,333 person field (there is also a $50K Spy with a 555 person field).

For FanDuel users, the best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $75K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $90K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $50K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $125K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different. There’s a bonus $50,000 prize pool if you enter lineups where all 9 of your players are on the winning side of their games this week, as well.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $400K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $40K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.65M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $300,000 top-prize.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson

HIGH-RISK: Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Kyler Murray, Devlin Hodges, Patrick Mahomes II, Jameis Winston, Kyle Allen

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK:  Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell (if active), Phillip Lindsay, Nick Chubb, James White, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Bilal Powell

HIGH RISK: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Josh Jacobs (if active), Kenyan Drake, Melvin Gordon III, Duke Johnson Jr, Bo Scarbrough, Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Samuels, LeSean McCoy, Ronald Jones II, Derrius Guice, Spencer Ware, Carlos Hyde, Nyheim Hines, Mark Ingram II, Benny Snell, Marlon Mack, Raheem Mostert, Royce Freeman, Sony Michel, Tevin Coleman, Jalen Richard, Peyton Barber, Darwin Thompson, DeAndre Washington, Bilal Powell

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Michael Thomas, D.J. Moore, DeVante Parker, DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Pascal, Marvin Jones Jr, Jamison Crowder

HIGH RISK: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, John Brown, Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr, Tyler Boyd, Kenny Golladay, D.J. Chark Jr, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Cole Beasley, Dede Westbrook, Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, James Washington, Will Fuller V, Sammy Watkins, Diontae Johnson, Chris Conley, A.J. Brown, Curtis Samuel, Larry Fitzgerald, Jakobi Meyers, Auden Tate, Danny Amendola, Russell Gage, Robby Anderson, Ted Ginn Jr, John Ross, Mohamed Sanu, Allen Hurns, Kelvin Harmon, Allen Lazard

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr, Jakobi Meyers, Chris Conley, Mike Williams, Julian Edelman, Zach Pascal, Odell Beckham Jr

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Ian Thomas

HIGH RISK: George Kittle, Vance McDonald, Mark Andrews, Kyle Rudolph

DST:

LOW-RISK: Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Washington Redskins

HIGH-RISK: Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

 

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!