Week 13 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 13 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 13? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of November.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Chiefs, -13
Eagles, -11
Panthers, -11
Packers, -7.5
Ravens, -5.5

Highest Game Totals (Move):
OAK@KC, 49.5 (-5.0)
TB@JAX, 48 (-1)
LAR@ARI, 47.5 (+0.5)

NE@HOU, 46.5 (Yahoo!, +2.0)
SF@BAL, 45.5 (-0.5)

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs, 31.25
Eagles, 27.75
Packers, 26
Ravens, 25.5

Buccaneers, 25.25
Rams, 25

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Redskins, 13.75
Dolphins, 16.75
Broncos, 17
Raiders, 18.25
Giants, 18.5

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

TB@JAX, LAR@ARI, GB@NYG

Jameis Winston is the highest rated QB in the Occupy Model for Week 13, so we love the Buccaneers and Jaguars as a stack. Jameis Winston derangement syndrome destroys the brain; the Bucs’ QB is averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt (Y/A), and a touchdown on 5.1% of his throws. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at his disposal, Winston always has a high ceiling. It’s an even more interesting spot for Ronald Jones II, who has taken over as the lead RB for Tampa Bay. The Jaguars allow a league high 5.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers, and 1.4 rushing TDs per game.

Nick Foles has played his best football in December, January and February over the last couple of years. Will it continue here? The Bucs’ have been nearly impossible to run on all season – they’ll need Foles to connect with D.J. Chark Jr, Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook to find success in Week 13. Leonard Fournette finally hit his ceiling last week – he’s our 2nd favorite RB in the Occupy Model, and carries a 36.1 weighted-opportunity score into this one.

November was just Gofful for the Rams fourth year QB, Jared Goff. A matchup with the Cardinals may be the cure – they allow the most passing yards per game to their opponents this season. Now with a fully healthy WR group, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks should hopefully elevate his play. Note: Gerald Everett is out in Week 13, which means Tyler Higbee should see increased usage in the passing game. Todd Gurley is no longer the bellcow we remember, but his price is reasonable now, and he brings a 25.2 weighted-opportunity projection into the matchup.

Kyler Murray is questionable for Week 13 with a hamstring injury. If he sits, this matchup is far less attractive from a game stacking perspective. Murray’s rushing upside gives him a higher floor than most QBs in his salary range. With Chase Edmonds expected to return, Kenyan Drake’s usage may decline, and David Johnson (who saw this coming in August?) is the third wheel in this backfield now. Our favorite WR in the Occupy Model to stack with Kyler is Christian Kirk – who we have slated for 8.3 targets.

While Aaron Rodgers’ MVP candidacy was all but eliminated in Week 12, a date with the Giants is the perfect get well spot for the Packers QB. The Giants are one of only 2 defenses (Bengals are the other) allowing QBs to throw for over 8.0 Y/A on the season. Davante Adams should be considered one of the highest floor WRs on the slate, while value play Allen Lazard has seen his usage increase recently. Aaron Jones’ passing game role has seemingly dried up, with Jamaal Williams commanding more work of late.

Daniel Jones will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison in Week 13. Third string TE Kaden Smith saw massive usage in the passing game in Week 12, drawing 6 targets on Jones’ 36 pass attempts. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard should be the top options for Jones in this passing game, though. Look for Saquon Barkley to try and get things going – the Packers’ 28th DVOA rush defense should be a welcome sight for the 2nd year tailback – he’s only scored one rushing touchdown while averaging 2.8 yards per carry since returning from a high ankle sprain in Week 7.

Be advised – we expect a wintry mix of conditions in this game – the game total has dropped to 44.5. 

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Lamar Jackson is a baaaad man – he’s actually cheaper than our top option written up below – understand his ownership is going to be high against a tough defense. He’s perfectly fine for low-risk contests because of his rushing floor and passing efficiency. We’re focused on some more compelling spots for analysis below:

Quarterback

Stud: Patrick Mahomes (vs. Oakland)

Mahomes has finally come back to Earth a bit. Since Week 4, he’s only averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt (Y/A), and a touchdown on 4.3% of his throws (compared to his 8.7 Y/A and 7.4% TD rate career averages, it’s low for him). Yet, he’s still projected to be the highest owned QB in Week 13 because players are sharper these days. In Week 2, Mahomes lit up the Raiders – he threw for 443 yards and 4 TDs – both season highs. With question marks at RB, the Chiefs may lean on Mahomes even more than usual in Week 13. He projects to see the third-least amount of pressure from a  defense on this slate. A win against the Raiders virtually locks up the AFC West for them.

Biggest note here, though – 20 mph winds are expected at Arrowhead on Sunday – anything over 15 mph is what gives us pause. We’ll monitor the forecast up to kickoff. Game total has dropped 5 points – be careful.

Value: Carson Wentz (@ Miami)

With new life thanks to Dallas’ loss on Thanksgiving, Wentz and the Eagles look to right the ship in South Beach this weekend. This Dolphins’ secondary has been abused week in and week out, most recently by Baker Mayfield. Now that Wentz gets Alshon Jeffery back for this matchup, he should have a far easier time finding his ceiling against the tanking Dolphins well below average secondary. Wentz will likely face the least amount of pressure from pass rushers of all QBs in Week 13, as well.

Value: Ryan Tannehill (@ Indianapolis)

Volume is a concern with Tannehill, but simply put, he’s balling out in 2019. Tannehill’s averaging a career high 9.2 Y/A and a TD on 6.5% of his throws in 2019 since taking over for Marcus Mariota. He now faces a Colts defense that will have a lot of pressure on it in this spot due to the injuries on Indianapolis’ offensive side of the ball. While we prefer paying for Wentz on DraftKings, the $100 in savings Tannehill nets you might make sense if you need it here (Wentz/Tannehill same price on FanDuel).

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (vs. Washington)

CMC is an 11 point home favorite against the Redskins, and has a 41.9 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model. Don’t get cute here. Imagine not just locking this in and moving on?

Stud:  Le’Veon Bell (@ Cincinnati)

While Leonard Fournette ranks highly in our Model (2nd favorite play on the slate), he costs $300 more than Bell, and is a 2.5 point underdog against the toughest rush defense in the NFL. Bell, on the other hand, has a much more attractive matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed opposing teams to average 166.4 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game this season. Bell’s passing game involvement certainly helps – the Bengals are also 30th by DVOA against RBs in the passing game. Finally, when you also consider the Jets are 3 point favorites, we like Bell for low-risk over Fournette.

Value: Miles Sanders (@ Miami)

Once again, Jordan Howard seems likely to miss a game for the Eagles. Miles Sanders has run a route on over 80% of Wentz’s dropbacks since Week 11, and has seen 10+ carries for three straight weeks. His target volume has been frustratingly low for two consecutive games (just 9 total) – it would be wise for Wentz, however, to look Sanders way against the Dolphins. Miami is dead last – 32nd by DVOA guarding RBs in the passing game this season. We project 25.7 weighted opportunities for Sanders in Week 13.

Jordan Howard is officially OUT for Week 13, per report.

Value: Melvin Gordon III, Austin Ekeler (@ Denver)

With Denver rumored to be starting rookie QB Drew Lock, the line in this game has started to move towards the Chargers (team total up 1.25 points as of writing, spread has moved them to 3 point favorites). Melvin Gordon owns roughly a 65% share of the carries in this backfield, with 10% of the targets in the passing game. This sets him up for a potential 15-17 carry, 2-3 catch day against the Denver defense. He’s one of only 2 RBs priced under $6500 on DraftKings who project for over 25 weighted opportunities in our Model. Austin Ekeler’s rushing volume has taken a huge hit with MG3 back in the fold, but he still commands work in the passing game in trailing game scripts (12 targets last game against the Chiefs). A game script where we expect the Chargers to roll over the rookie QB in his debut game would favor Gordon, while a competitive game would make Ekeler much more viable. We lean towards Gordon here for low-risk contests.

Drew Lock was activated off IR and added to the active roster by Denver – no confirmation he’s starting officially yet.

Wide Receiver

Stud: Davante Adams (@ NY Giants)

A month off seems to be just what the doctor ordered for Adams – he’s seen double digit targets every week since returning in Week 9. Incredibly, he’s actually underperformed his air yards by over 68% in that time period. The Giants are 32nd by DVOA against WR1s on the season, which is good news for the 6 year veteran. We project Adams for 9.9 targets in the Occupy Model. He has one of the highest projectible floors on the main slate.

Stud: D.J. Chark Jr (vs. Tampa Bay)

We love playing WRs facing the Buccaneers – so it should be no surprise that we expect a Chark Attack from the Jaguars this Sunday. The 2nd year LSU product has really shined in 2019, with a 56-834-8 line on 91 total targets. He wasn’t just Gardner Minshew’s favorite target – Chark’s 21 targets from Nick Foles lead all Jaguar WRs since he returned to the lineup.

Chris Conley’s 17 targets rank 2nd at the position, and he is on our underperforming WRs list for Week 13. Dede Westbrook is 3rd with 15 targets from Foles, but he’s been a super reliable slot WR for them for awhile now. Chark is the stud here, but at minimum we recommend getting one of these guys into your low-risk lineups because of the great matchup.

Value: Alshon Jeffery (@ Miami)

The Dolphins have been an incredible matchup for WRs all season long, and with a depleted secondary (Bobby McCain and Reshad Jones placed on IR before Week 12), it’s even better now. Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry abused the Dolphins, combining for 16-232-3 on 21 targets in Week 12. Jeffrey was not featured on the final injury report of the week for the Eagles, so he slides right back into his WR1 role at the right time. While Agholor seems poised to return, there’s more uncertainty at WR2 with both J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward expected to mix in (in addition to Ertz and Goedert at TE) for work.

Value: Kelvin Harmon (@ Carolina)


Harmon was Washington’s 6th round draft pick in April. Paul Richardson is out this week – the last time he missed a game, Harmon ran 40 routes on 41 of Haskins’ dropbacks (Pro Football Focus) and saw 6 targets in Week 11. He had 125 air yards last week even with Richardson active. Harmon is due for an expanded role yet again here in Week 13, and at an affordable price. With Carolina likely to focus on Terry McLaurin, Harmon should see some opportunities to make things happen. We have him projected for 3.9 targets in the Occupy Model, but 5+ is not out of the question at all here.

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (vs. Oakland)

The matchup is actually amazing for Tyreek Hill (Raiders are 29th DVOA against WR1s), but Kelce feels much safer as a high end pass catcher to pair with Mahomes because of Hill’s hamstring woes. While it will be a struggle to afford him, Kelce’s the highest ranked TE in the Occupy Model for Week 13. There’s nothing wrong with finding your way up to him, here. He has an 8.7 target projection in the Model.

Value: Jack Doyle (vs. Tennessee)

Without T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron and Devin Funchess, it’s getting real thin in the passing game for Jacoby Brissett. The risk here is they may continue to just feed Jonathan Williams on the ground… but the Titans are the 5th best rush defense, and just 23rd against the pass by DVOA. Doyle has already been playing 65-75% of snaps and running a route on 65% of dropbacks on average – expect that to increase in Week 13. We project 7.0 targets for Doyle against the Titans.

Value: Tyler Higbee (@ Arizona)

With Gerald Everett out, Higbee is the minimum price (on DraftKings) against the 32nd DVOA defense against the TE position. This is a bit of a punt, but with decent upside because of the matchup. We like to start by locking in the lowest priced player we’re comfortable with in low-risk lineups – this week, Tyler Higbee is in the running. We have him projected for 3.4 targets.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

4-5%. NFL Sundays offer big prizes, so we want to go a little heavier than we would on main slates in other sports. This feels like a very straightforward week in cash games – a lot of lineups will be focused on Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Miles Sanders and Davante Adams. Yours should probably be, as well.

If you can settle on a build you like for low-risk contests, continue to play 60-70% of your allocation in low-risk, and take some careful shots for your bankroll tier (recommendations below) at tournaments with the other 30-40%. As always, if you can’t find a low-risk lineup you like – just play tournaments!

For low risk, remember to focus on H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

It’s always a good idea to lock in a high volume, cheap RB in your low-risk lineup, and in the majority (if not all) of your high-risk lineups. This week, Miles Sanders (once again) fits the bill.

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $50K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $80K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $22K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $18K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $35K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $14K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

On DraftKings, you should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There are also generic “NFL $3 Ticket SuperSatellite” contests – these award 4 tickets and are $0.25 single entry GPPs. This would be a great way to accumulate Pylon or Play-Action tickets.

There is also an NBA Holiday BBall Millionaire contest that has satellites available on DraftKings now for some cross-sport opportunity – you have several weeks to rack up tickets for this. Other strong cross-sport satellite opportunities? The EPL $100K Boxing Day Classic, LOL $40K Opening Day 2020, the EL $5 December Friday Frenzy, the NAS $10 America’s Race in February and the TEN $15 Aussie Special.

On FanDuel, look at the satellites for the NHL SUPER Monster on 12/3, NBA Legendary Layup on 12/4, NBA Alley Oop on 12/4, NHL Super Deke on 12/10,NBA Hang Time on 12/11, NBA $1M Alley Oop on 12/18, NHL Super Crossbar on 12/19, NBA EPIC Monster on 12/20, NBA Santa Slam on 12/25, NBA Jumbo Dunk on 1/8, NHL SUPER Goal on 1/9, NBA Spectacular Slam on 1/15 and TEN SUPER Smash on 1/19. Obviously, we like the satellites for the WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 as well.

Don’t forget we have NBA and NHL Models for you to use for those contests – there will be an NBA Daily Plug as well on all slates with 6+ NBA games.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1M Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone stand out. The $100 entry fee $300K Spy awards $50,000 to 1st place, and is a small 3,333 person field (there is also a $50K Spy with a 555 person field).

For FanDuel users, the best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $70K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $80K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $45K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $125K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $400K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $40K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.5M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $300,000 top-prize.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Lamar Jackson

HIGH-RISK: Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Nick Foles, Derek Carr

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Williams, Josh Jacobs

HIGH RISK: Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams, Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Tevin Coleman, Nyheim Hines, Ronald Jones II, Mark Ingram II, Kalen Ballage, LeSean McCoy, Royce Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Darrel Williams, Peyton Barber, Bilal Powell, Benny Snell

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Odell Beckham Jr, Courtland Sutton, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, Jarvis Landry, Zach Pascal, DeVante Parker, Sterling Shepard, Demaryius Thomas

HIGH RISK: Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Jamison Crowder, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Deebo Samuel, Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Larry Fitzgerland, James Washington, A.J. Brown, Sammy Watkins, Darius Slayton, Tyrell Williams, Brandin Cooks, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Robby Anderson, Alex Erickson, Allen Hurns, Albert Wilson, Auden Tate, Breshad Perriman, Allen Lazard, Cody Latimer

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: Courtland Sutton, Chris Conley, Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Julian Edelman (Yahoo!), Curtis Samuel, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Zach Pascal, Alshon Jeffery, Vance McDonald (TE)

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Ryan Griffin, Hunter Henry

HIGH RISK: George Kittle, Greg Olsen, Dallas Goedert, Kaden Smith, Mark Andrews, Cameron Brate

DST:

LOW-RISK: Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers

HIGH-RISK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Washington Redskins

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!