Week 12 – DFS Stud & Value Plays

Week 12 – DFS Stud & Value Plays

Thanksgiving is behind us, so it’s time to turn our attention to the full slate of games on Sunday. Since every team has already had their bye week, we have the full complement of players available to us here on out.

Here are my favorite stud and value play in salary cap games at each skill position:

Quarterback

STUD – Russell Wilson (@ San Francisco)

Russell Wilson’s heading to the bay area with probably the highest floor in all of fantasy football for a quarterback this season given the lack of an actual running game from these Seahawks. Wilson struggled in Week 2 at home against this San Francisco team, however that was before the addition of Duane Brown at left tackle, so hopefully he fares better on Sunday on that front. The 49ers allow opponents to play at the fastest pace in football this season, 73.8 offensive snaps on average. I’m expecting Russ to eclipse 300 all purpose yards in this game and deliver at least 2 total touchdowns.

VALUE – Paxton Lynch (@ Oakland)

Let’s be clear, this is a complete and utter tournament play without any sort of track record to go off of for Lynch here. What we do know is that the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator after losing to the Patriots last weekend, and are trending in the wrong direction. Thanks to the team over at Football Outsiders, we also know that the Raiders are league’s least efficient pass defense – 32nd in team DVOA.

Lynch brings a career yards per attempt average of 6.0 into Week 12 after going 49 for 83 for 497 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in 3 games last season. If you want to pay down at the quarterback position on Sunday, look to stack Lynch with either Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. In his two starts in 2016, they had 17 and 18 targets from Lynch respectively, so both should be in play. While the Broncos’ are catering their offense to Lynch, this is a buyer beware: Lynch’s floor is bottomless here.

Running back

STUD – LeSean McCoy (@ Kansas City)

McCoy has had 13 carries or less since Week 9, after averaging 20.6 carries in Weeks 4 through 8. His workload should increase here for several reasons: first, the Chiefs are a woeful rushing defense, allowing opposing offenses to average 4.6 yards per carry, 130 yards and one rushing touchdown per game in 2017.

Second, he should be relatively fresh after playing a season low 50% and 65% of Buffalo’s snaps in Week 10 and Week 11 respectively. Without Kelvin Benjamin available for Tyrod Taylor in Week 12, McCoy’s workload should be the most reliable of all Bills on Sunday. His additional role as a pass catcher (5+ targets per game on average) only raises his ceiling that much further.

VALUE – Devontae Booker (@ Oakland)

Booker saw a season high 59% of the snaps last week against Cincinnati, and all indications out of Denver are that he will continue to see his workload increase. Regardless of how I feel about this (I’m definitely a C.J. Anderson apologist), it’s hard to deny Booker is in a great spot here with an inexperienced Lynch under center and a bad Raiders rush defense on the schedule Sunday. Oakland is 21st in DVOA against the rush, and also 25th defending running backs in the passing game. If he gets anywhere near the 19 touches he had last week, Booker could easily eclipse 100 all purpose yards here. If the reports on his potential workload pan out, I expect him to be heavily involved as a safety valve for Lynch, as well.

Wide Receiver

STUD – A. J. Green (vs. Cleveland)

The 4-6 Cincinnati Bengals are fighting for an AFC wild card berth, and as a result should be extremely motivated to win the latest edition of the Battle of Ohio on Sunday. The Browns pull into the weekend as the most efficient defense in the entire NFL against the rush, but merely 24th in DVOA against the pass.

They are dead last (32nd) against WR1’s, so even before getting into Green’s elite level talent, its a great matchup. Green is averaging 8+ targets a game in 2017, 15.5 yards per reception, and a touchdown on one out of every eight receptions. Given all this, Green has a real good chance to deliver 6+ receptions, 100 yards, and a touchdown on Sunday.

VALUE – DeSean Jackson (@ Atlanta)

Jackson’s price is astoundingly low here against the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta is 28th in the league against WR2’s, so he’s actually in a better matchup than Mike Evans this weekend. His role as a burner on deep routes is really interesting here, because I think most expect Tampa Bay to be chasing points (and therefore throwing) throughout this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick prefers both of his receivers to the tight ends in Tampa Bay since taking over as quarterback this season, so I like Jackson as a boom or bust value play in salary cap games this weekend.

Tight End

STUD – Delanie Walker (@ Indianapolis)

Walker is an affordable stud this week, priced much lower than Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, and Travis Kelce this weekend and therefore likely to be overlooked. The Colts bring the 26th defense in the league against the tight end position into this matchup, which bodes well for Walker, who also owns a 23% target share on the Titans this season, the largest on the team. We also have news that WR Rishard Matthews might not go on Sunday, which makes Walker even more attractive if that is indeed the case.

VALUE – Tyler Kroft (vs. Cleveland)

The Browns feature the worst defense in the league against the tight end, so Kroft is also in play alongside A.J. Green here. I expect Dalton to Green, Dalton to Kroft, and even stacks of all three to be extremely popular plays this weekend. Kroft averages the third most targets in Cincinnati’s offense, but given that WR2 Brandon LaFell has a tough matchup  (Cleveland 4th in DVOA against WR2’s), Kroft might be the best secondary option for Andy Dalton on Sunday.

Best of the Rest

QB – Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton
RB – Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Tevin Coleman, Dion Lewis, J.D. McKissic
WR – Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Mohamed Sanu, Danny Amendola, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Cooper Kupp
TE – Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook
K – Brandon McManus, Ryan Succop, Harrison Butker, Adam Vinatieri
DST – Bengals, Titans, Patriots, Eagles, Jaguars

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