Week 12 – DFS Recap

Week 12 – DFS Recap

Week 12 was the Julio Jones show, as the Atlanta receiver added his third 250+ receiving yard game to his resume. His 12 catches, 253 yards and 2 touchdowns far and away dominated the Week 12 slate of games.

I was off of Julio in favor of another star receiver this weekend, and I definitely paid the price. Here’s a look at the studs and values I identified for Week 12, and what we can learn from them.

Quarterback

Stud – Russell Wilson (@ San Francisco) – 20/34, 228 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT | 7 carries, 25 yards, 1 rush TD
Value – Paxton LOLynch (@ Oakland) – 9/14, 41 yards, 1 INT | 2 carries, 20 yards

Russell Wilson’s monstrous role for these Seahawks continued in Week 12, as his 253 all purpose yards accounted for 80% of their team total on the day. He managed to keep his jersey clean, as the 49ers failed to sack him once here. His three total touchdowns gave his daily fantasy owners an incredible floor, and given his price was lower than Tom Brady’s and Carson Wentz’s on the major sites, he was a much better overall value in this tier of players. His 6.7 yards per attempt in this one underperformed his season long 7.4 yard average by 10% – he definitely left some plays on the field. Given that it rained throughout the contest, I’ll chalk it up to that.

Stepping away from stat-land, you have to really feel bad for Paxton Lynch here. The former first round pick thought he had a 20 yard touchdown pass to Devontae Booker on his fourth drive of the day, but on replay review, Booker was ruled down by contact just shy of the goal line.

On the very next snap, Lynch throws a pass that pinballs around the end zone and lands right into the hands of Raiders’ LB NaVorro Bowman for an interception. Then, with 4:58 left in the third quarter, Lynch exits the game with an ankle injury after completing a screen pass to Emmanuel Sanders. Trevor Siemian came in, and immediately looked competent – suggesting Lynch may not see the field again in 2017. As I talked about in the preview column, Lynch was a total boom or bust play for tournaments, and well – bust.

Running back

Stud – LeSean McCoy (@ Kansas City) – 22 carries, 49 yards | 4 catches, 30 yards on 4 targets
Value – Devontae Booker (@ Oakland) – 6 carries, 11 yards | 2 catches, 22 yards on 4 targets

LeSean McCoy got the volume I was expecting with his 26 total touches on the day. The day started off strong, with a 24 yard reception on Buffalo’s first offensive series. Unfortunately, McCoy’s efficiency plummeted from there on out. His 2.2 yards per carry average was nowhere near the 4.2 yards per carry we’ve come to expect from Shady, who has suddenly turned into a very up-and-down fantasy player in recent weeks. Productivity is far less predictable than volume, and in Kansas City on Sunday, McCoy definitely delivered a floor game for his owners. His role in this offense is extremely safe, so we’ll see how he fares next weekend in Foxborough.

Booker’s usage did not match the talk coming out of Bronco Country in Week 12 at all. Game script probably had a lot to do with it, as running the football and throwing safe dump-off passes went out the window as soon as the Raiders built a 14-0 lead going into the half. Booker was likely an inch away from changing the entire flow of the game single-handedly – had he gotten into the end zone for Paxton Lynch at the beginning of the second quarter his fantasy production obviously would have been better. More importantly though, it would have kept Denver in a comfort zone with their play calling. Obviously, it was a bit much to ask Lynch and Siemian to sling it in this one – and Booker’s usage was the casualty. Silver lining – his 6 carries represented the majority on the day for Denver. It will be interesting to see how Vance Joseph calls it against Miami next weekend.

Wide Receiver

Stud – A.J. Green (vs. Cleveland) – 5 receptions, 66 yards on 8 targets
Value – DeSean Jackson (@ Atlanta) – 8 receptions, 60 yards on 11 targets

Green’s 30% target share in the Bengals offense remained consistent in Week 12 – his 8 targets represented roughly the same amount of Dalton’s 26 drop backs on Sunday. Unfortunately for those of us who picked him, his 13.2 yards per reception average in this one came in well below his 15.5 yard average here in 2017. His price tag in salary cap contests made it difficult to play both him and Julio Jones, so if you were like me, this is likely where you lost the week. The spot made sense – the Browns continue to be abysmal against WR1’s, which immediately brings my attention to the LA Chargers next weekend. Green’s date with the Pittsburgh Steelers next Monday will be an interesting one to monitor, as the Steelers came into Week 12 as a top 5 fantasy defense against receivers.

Jackson was an absolute bargain compared to teammate Mike Evans in salary cap contests, and his average price per target highly illustrates this. Evans and Jackson combined for 23 total targets, good for 52.3% of Fitzpatrick’s attempts in Week 12. Unfortunately, the touchdowns went to RB Peyton Barber in this one, as Tampa Bay found themselves in close yardage goal-to-go situations on both of their touchdown drives. We know Fitzmagic prefers these two to any of his other weapons, so I’m going to continue to look at them closely while he’s under center as the daily fantasy season rolls on.

Tight End

Stud – Delanie Walker (@ Indianapolis) – 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD on 5 targets
Value – Tyler Kroft (vs. Cleveland) – 3 receptions, 14 yards, 1 TD on 4 targets

Like Green, Walker’s target share remained consistent for Marcus Mariota here in Week 12. His 5 targets represented 21% of Mariota’s attempts, right in line with his 23% season long average. What made Walker an even more attractive play in Week 12 was Rishard Matthews finding his way to the inactive list. While I considered Walker more attractive given the matchup and his low price compared to guys like Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski, the worst case scenario did indeed play out – both of those guys had ceiling-type performances in Week 12. If Walker allowed you the salary cap savings to fit in Julio this week, you played it right. The Colts continue to be an attractive matchup for tight ends with bargain bin priced Marcedes Lewis and the Jacksonville Jaguars on next weekend’s schedule.

Kroft found the end zone against Cleveland, which basically ensures they will continue to be the best matchup for tight ends heading into Week 13. With a trip to LA to face the white-hot Chargers on the schedule, you should expect a Hunter Henry profile on Thursday in my DFS studs and values preview article. Say goodbye to Tyler Kroft for now – the Steelers are the best against the tight end in 2017, so he shouldn’t be in consideration at all next weekend.