Week 11 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 11 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 11? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of November.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Raiders, -13
Vikings, -11.5
49ers, -11.5

Bills, -7
Rams, -7 (Yahoo! only)

Highest Game Totals:
HOU@BAL, 51.5
NO@TB, 50
DAL@DET, 49
ATL@CAR, 49
CIN@OAK, 48.5

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Raiders, 30.75
Ravens, 28
Saints, 27.75
49ers, 27.75

Cowboys, 26.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Broncos, 14.25
Cardinals, 16.25
Bears, 16.5
Dolphins, 16.75

Bengals, 17.75
Jets, 18.5

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

NO@TB, DAL@DET, ATL@CAR

Tough call omitting BAL@HOU – in reality, there’s more than 3 stackable games on this slate. Don’t feel guilty at all stacking up a game featuring Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins at the highest total on the slate.

We’ve seen passing attacks abuse the Buccaneers week after week in the 2019 NFL season – this week, Drew Brees and the Saints head to Florida to try and continue the trend. Alvin Kamara is well ahead of Latavius Murray, even if the workload in last week’s box score doesn’t fully show it. Michael Thomas is the highest ranked WR on the slate in the Occupy Model, while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both rank inside the top 10 once again. Kamara played 78% of the snaps to just 25% for Murray against the Falcons, so he’s the clear top back for fantasy based on usage. With Bruce Arians saying Ronald Jones II can do “even more in the passing game”, we should probably mix him in, as well. This game has a 49.5 total.

Even with backup signal caller Jeff Driskel under center, the Cowboys and Lions Week 11 matchup has plenty of upside for tournament stacking. Amari Cooper is one of the highest ceiling WRs in football, while Michael Gallup, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr each project near the top of the Occupy Model as well. At RB, J.D. McKissic is easy to project for the majority of the work for Detroit with Ty Johnson in concussion protocol – only Paul Perkins is behind him at the position. Ezekiel Elliott is one of only 6 backs who project for over 30 weighted opportunities here in Week 11, and at low projected ownership. While tough to see a true ceiling for either, Jason Witten and T.J. Hockenson have each seen 7 red zone targets on the year, putting them firmly in play as cap relief options in game stacks as well. Ty Johnson has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play. Paul Perkins was waived. Expect split work with Johnson and McKissic, with McKissic having more involvement in the passing game.

Coming off a huge upset win in Week 10, the Falcons now head to Carolina to face the Panthers in another big NFC South game. Tons of value exists in this game for stacking thanks to the Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman injuries – Brian Hill in particular should be one of the highest owned RBs on the entire slate. We can afford to play the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in stacks thanks to the Hill value. Matt Ryan and Kyle Allen also make sense as signal callers priced affordably. With a total of 49 points, there’s tons of upside to be found. This game total has decreased by 2 points since lines posted. Of note: Curtis Samuel still appears on our underperforming WRs list below for Week 11.

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Drew Brees (@ Tampa Bay)

The Buccaneers allow – by far – the most passing yards per game to their opponents at 298.9 in 2019. Brees has been efficient at moving the football in his 3 full games, gaining 287 yards through the air last week even without any touchdowns. Now facing a pourous pass defense ranked 27th by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, he should be able to connect early and often with the likes of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn Jr, Jared Cook and Tre’quan Smith.

Look for Brees to be the primary source of fantasy production for the Saints, since the Buccaneers sit as the toughest team to run against, allowing a league low 77.8 rushing yards per game to their opponents.

Value: Derek Carr (vs. Cincinnati)

The Raiders have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.75 points.  At his affordable price tag, Derek Carr is one of the best low-risk quarterbacks on the slate as a result. The Bengals are coming off a home game where the Ravens absolutely torched them in all phases – Carr should have no problem moving the ball against this league worst 32nd DVOA pass defense. The Bengals generate the least amount of pressure on quarterbacks on the slate.

Value: Kyle Allen (vs. Atlanta)

The Panthers are modest 4.5 point home favorites in Week 11, and Kyle Allen just so happens to have the most dynamic weapon in football available to him in the passing game. The Falcons allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for 7.93 yards per attempt (Y/A), 4th most in the NFL. Allen is set up nicely to reach value if he can connect with his playmakers in this spot. The Falcons generate the third least amount of pressure on quarterbacks on the main slate. Paying down at QB allows you to try and play some of the better options at other positions.

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (vs. Atlanta)

What’s left to say? $10,500 for the second week in a row, CMC is now a home favorite instead of a road underdog. If you liked him last week, you should love him this week. DFS, however, is not played in a vacuum – with the likes of Cook, Elliott, Fournette, Jacobs and several value options available in Week 11, it’s not a “must” that you pay up for CMC in your low-risk lineups by any stretch of the imagination. The Panther RB still offers the highest floor/ceiling combo at the position, and faces a Falcons defense that is just 21st by DVOA defending RBs in the passing game. The Saints attempted to exploit this with 10 targets thrown Kamara’s way last week against Atlanta. CMC’s weighted opportunity score of 39.5 is the highest in the Occupy Model.

Stud: Dalvin Cook (vs. Denver)

Dalvin is both the highest ranked RB for us on DraftKings (2nd to CMC on FanDuel), and the highest projected owned player at the position. We know by now not to mess around – just play the high owned RBs in NFL DFS. Cook’s price tag is much more palatable than McCaffrey’s, and he’s an 11 point home favorite. His 33.9 weighted opportunity score is the 4th highest in the Occupy Model for Week 11.

Value: Josh Jacobs (vs. Cincinnati)

As a massive 12.5 point home favorite, the Raiders’ most easily projectable game script is one that involves a lot of touches for Josh Jacobs. He might start to be more involved in the passing game; in Week 10 he saw a season-high 5 targets. If you believe Oakland will literally run away with this one, Jacobs is one of the best values on the entire slate. By rostering Jacobs and our two other value plays below, you can afford to pay for some of the better QBs, WRs and even DSTs here in Week 11. Jacobs projects as the 4th highest owned RB on DraftKings, and 5th highest on FanDuel.

Value: Brian Hill (@ Carolina)

It’s not quite Jaylen Samuels-esque, but the spot for Hill here is incredible. At an affordable price tag, you can lock in an RB with a 22.1 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model. Hill played the majority of the snaps after Devonta Freeman left Week 10 with an injury, and showed passing game involvement – his touchdown came on a red zone target.

With Atlanta’s coaching staff confident in Hill handling a lead back role, you should also feel confident locking Hill in to a majority of your high-risk lineups in addition to your low-risk lineup in Week 11.

Value: Miles Sanders (vs. New England)

With Jordan Howard still not cleared for contact, Miles Sanders seems poised to see an increase in carries. That’s in addition to his already well established passing game role, where he’s been a real weapon for Carson Wentz at low volume. The only healthy option behind Sanders if Howard misses may be Boston Scott – newly signed Jay Ajayi seems to be an emergency option for Week 11 after only arriving on Friday, but we’ll monitor this through the weekend. Sanders is our 6th highest ranked RB on DraftKings (11th on FanDuel) if his workload rises. Sanders is a great value play if we find out he’s going to be the feature back come Sunday morning.

Jordan Howard is officially OUT, per Adam Schefter. We expect Boston Scott to be returning kicks and punts, with Sanders focusing on offense per report. Jay Ajayi is expected to be available, but has not played a game since October 2018 after tearing his ACL. 

Wide Receiver

Stud: Michael Thomas (@ Tampa Bay)

Michael Thomas’ 74.4 DK OF Index score is the highest we’ve seen this season, and one of the highest in the history of the Occupy Model. With 10.4 targets anticipated for him, he’s the safest option to play in the dream spot against the Buccaneers. It’s a hefty price to pay – we have the rare situation where a player’s DraftKings price is higher than his FanDuel price. Thomas will cost you basically 20% of your DK budget, vs. “only” 15% of your FanDuel one. WR1’s against the Buccaneers in the last two weeks:

Tyler Lockett: 13-152-2 on 18 targets
Christian Kirk: 6-138-3 on 10 targets

Thomas himself posted an 11-182-2 line on 13 targets against these Bucs in Week 5; he’s seen 11+ targets in every game since then. It would serve you well to figure out a way to play him in low-risk as a result.

Stud: Chris Godwin (vs. New Orleans)

The best way for Jameis Winston to compete with the Saints on Sunday might be to save the dogs and feed Chris Godwin. Godwin has quietly continued to see massive volume, seeing 8+ targets for three consecutive weeks. He hasn’t topped 13.9 fantasy points since Week 6, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since the last time he played the Saints. In that game, Godwin posted a 7-125-2 line on 9 targets. With no Marshon Lattimore available for the Saints in Week 11, Godwin (and Evans) will have some less talented options lining up against them than normal. We project Godwin for 8.2 targets in the Occupy Model.

Value: John Brown (@ Miami)

The top option in our “underperforming” wide receivers list is John Brown, who couldn’t have timed his trip to face the Miami Dolphins any better as a result. We project 6.9 targets for him in the Occupy Model, however, he’s our 5th favorite option on DraftKings. With a 14.4 yard average depth of target (aDOT), Brown’s ceiling is massive – one that he’s yet to find on the year, as he hasn’t scored over 20 fantasy points or gone over 100 yards receiving since Week 1. A date with Miami might cure that here.

Value: D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (vs. Atlanta)

People may feel like this Atlanta defense is a trap – they kept New Orleans receivers out of the end zone in Week 10, after all. Michael Thomas certainly didn’t suffer though – he posted a 13-152-0 line on 14 targets. Moore and Samuel are in line to see the same soft matchup in Week 11; hopefully, they’re able to convert their opportunities into some scores. We have Moore projected for 9.4 targets and Samuel (one of our underperforming WRs) projected for 8.2 targets in the Occupy Model.

Value: Deebo Samuel (vs. Arizona)

Emmanuel Sanders is expected to “try to play” on Sunday despite not practicing all week. Should he go, expect Deebo’s usage to take a huge hit. Deebo ran 45 routes on Monday night, and drew a team high 11 targets from Garoppolo in their overtime loss to Seattle. With the SF injuries piling up on Monday, Deebo’s price came in at an affordable tag for a WR1 last Sunday evening. He’s a great plug and play should Sanders be ruled out come game time.

Sanders will play today, per report – this makes Samuel far less of a lock for low-risk as a result. Consider the new option below. 

Value: Russell Gage (@ Carolina)

Since Mohamed Sanu was traded to New England, Gage has seen the 2nd most targets behind Julio Jones for all Falcons WRs. He’s played 59% and 62% of the offensive snaps, a marked increase from his average of 15-20% of the snaps before the Sanu trade.

Without Austin Hooper available at TE, expect the football to be spread around more to Ryan’s existing weapons. We can infer from Gage’s 6.6 yard aDOT since the trade that he runs primarily slot routes for Atlanta. The Panthers do defend WRs well across the board, but at his price tag, Gage opens up the options a ton to pay up at the RB position. Gage ran 33 routes on Matt Ryan’s 36 dropbacks in Week 10 (per Pro Football Focus).

Tight End

Stud: Darren Waller (vs. Cincinnati)

Waller’s still the lead target option for Derek Carr in this offense, despite three straight weeks with under 10 fantasy points. There is only one tight end on the slate with a better matchup on paper than Waller in Week 11, our value option below. We project Waller for 6.8 targets in the Occupy Model. This is a position with some great options at lower prices, but should you choose to pay up, you could do a lot worse than Darren Waller.

Value: Ross Dwelley (vs. Arizona)

Don’t “Dwelley” on it – the Cardinals are 32nd by DVOA against the TE position, so paying down for the matchup is perfectly fine. Dwelley didn’t meet our box score expectations in Week 10, but he did see 7 targets and played 91% of the snaps for the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Dwelley also ran a route on 84% of Garoppolo’s dropbacks (per Pro Football Focus) – so his underlying usage was strong in his lone start. Expect the box score results to follow with that kind of usage sooner rather than later.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

What started out looking like a week where we would have to choose between CMC and Michael Thomas in low-risk contests has been blown wide open thanks to some injury situations. We can get to either one (or both) thanks to the opportunities on this slate for guys like Brian Hill, Russell Gage, Ross Dwelley and Miles Sanders. Hill in particular is the player we strongly recommend you lock in for low-risk and for most (if not all) of your high-risk lineups.

We’re calling it a 6-8% bankroll week once again (that would mean on a theoretical bankroll of $1000, you can play $60-$80).

Play 60-70% of that allocation in low-risk, and take some careful shots for your bankroll tier (recommendations below) at tournaments with the other 30-40%.

For low risk, remember to focus on H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

It’s always a good idea to lock in a high volume, cheap RB in your low-risk lineup, and in the majority (if not all) of your high-risk lineups. This week, that’s Brian Hill. Use him liberally. Miles Sanders is a great cheap play to use frequently as well if Jordan Howard is out.

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. The AutoNation Free Football Challenge is your one crack at this on DraftKings this week.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $80K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $135K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $25K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $22K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $40K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $16K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

On DraftKings, you should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There are also generic “NFL $3 Ticket SuperSatellite” contests – these award 4 tickets and are $0.25 single entry GPPs. This would be a great way to accumulate Pylon or Play-Action tickets.

There is also an NBA Holiday BBall Millionaire contest that has satellites available on DraftKings now for some cross-sport opportunity – you have several weeks to rack up tickets for this. Other strong cross-sport satellite opportunities? The NBA $1M High Flyer, the EPL $100K Boxing Day Classic, the NHL $360 Spin-O-Rama, LOL $40K Opening Day 2020 and the NAS $10 America’s Race in February.

On FanDuel, look at the satellites for the NHL SUPER Goal on 11/19, NBA Jumbo Dunk on 11/20, NBA Spectacular Slam on 11/27, NHL SUPER Monster on 12/3, NBA Legendary Layup on 12/4, NHL Super Deke on 12/10, NBA $1M Alley Oop on 12/18, NHL Super Crossbar on 12/19, NBA EPIC Monster on 12/20, NBA Santa Slam on 12/25 and TEN SUPER Smash on 1/19. Obviously, we like the satellites for “Next Week’s NFL Sunday Million” and the WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 as well.

Don’t forget we have NBA and NHL Models for you to use for those contests – there will be an NBA Daily Plug as well on all slates with 6+ NBA games.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $1.2K Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $100K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here.

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $100K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone stand out. The $100 entry fee $300K Spy awards $50,000 to 1st place, and is a small 3,333 person field (there is also a $75K Spy with an 833 person field).

For FanDuel users, the best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $111K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $130K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $45K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $150K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $400K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $40K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.8M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $300,000 top-prize.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Jacoby Brissett, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson

HIGH-RISK: Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Jeff Driskel

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman

HIGH RISK: Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, Joe Mixon, James White, J.D. McKissic, Marlon Mack, Ronald Jones II,  Kalen Ballage, Mark Ingram II, Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson Jr, Sony Michel, Frank Gore, Latavius Murray, Peyton Barber, Jalen Richard, Raheem Mostert, Kenjon Barner

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Mohamed Sanu, DeVante Parker, Demaryius Thomas, Russell Gage 

HIGH RISK: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Stefon Diggs, D.J. Chark Jr, Marvin Jones Jr, Calvin Ridley, Jamison Crowder, Larry Fitzgerald, Auden Tate, Will Fuller V (if active), Zach Pascal, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Nelson Agholor, Tyrell Williams, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn Jr, Russell Gage, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

Will Fuller OUT. 

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: John Brown, Curtis Samuel, Auden Tate, Pharoh Cooper, Allen Robinson (Yahoo!)

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Mark Andrews, Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron (if Doyle out)

HIGH RISK: Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Jack Doyle, Zach Ertz, Jason Witten, T.J. Hockenson, O.J. Howard, Eric Ebron (if Doyle in), Jaeden Graham

DST:

LOW-RISK: Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins

HIGH-RISK: New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com. All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!