Week 10 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug

Week 10 NFL DFS Main Slate Daily Plug



The following article appears on OccupyFantasy.com every Friday! Become a member for as little as $2/week with an annual subscription for NFL DFS analysis, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL and more.


The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL DFS picks write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for each slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly what types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are.

Occupy Fantasy’s Chris Rooney has written up a guide to the slate using the Occupy Model, betting line movements, and news updates. Be sure to read all the way through to the end!

Follow Occupy Fantasy on Twitter for updates through lock.

Keep an eye on this page, updates will be made IN BLUE on Sunday mornings if anything changes. For NFL Inactives, visit this link to the NFL.com page – updates roughly 90 minutes before kickoff for each game.

Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

Want analysis for every player in Week 10? Check out the Occupy Model. Want help building lineups? Our partner, DFS Magic, is offering an optimizer FREE for all Occupy members through the end of November.

BETTING ODDS

Biggest Favorites:
Saints, -14.5
Colts, -13
Ravens, -11.5
Bears -6.5
Chiefs, -6
Packers, -5

Highest Game Totals:
ARI@TB, 52.5
ATL@NO, 51
KC@TEN, 49.5
MIN@DAL, 48 (Yahoo! Only)
CAR@GB, 47

Highest Implied Team Totals:
Saints, 32.75
Colts, 28.5
Buccaneers, 28.5
Ravens, 28.25
Chiefs, 27.75

Lowest Implied Team Totals:
Dolphins, 15.5
Lions 16.25
Bengals, 16.75
Falcons, 18.25
Bills, 18.75
Lions, 20.25

GAMES TO STACK

Each week, we’ll point out three games to stack based on the Occupy Model, betting line information such as game totals, implied team totals, line movements, and more. 

ATL@NO, ARI@TB, CAR@GB

Dan Quinn has confirmed that Matt Ryan will play on Sunday, instantly elevating what we can expect from the Falcons in Week 10. While the Saints are massive favorites in this game, it’s important to remember Ryan had thrown for over 300 yards in all 6 games he started before playing poorly and getting hurt in Week 7 against the Rams. Ryan should be forced to throw to keep pace with Drew Brees in this spot once again. Julio Jones is one of our favorite receivers in the Occupy Model, and we project him for 8.9 targets – 4th most on the week. On the other side, Michael Thomas ranks even higher, with an extremely solid 10.5 target projection of his own. Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper and Jared Cook round out the solid plays for stacking, while value dart Russell Gage saw a spike in usage, playing 57% of snaps in Week 8 after Sanu was traded.

With the Cardinals flying across the country to play the Buccaneers in the 1:00pm window, we have one of the NFL’s fastest tempo squads against one of the easiest offenses to stack – Tampa Bay’s tight target allocation to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (who see over 50% of the teams total targets) give both access to a viable floor for cash games and ceiling for tournaments. Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray are 2 of our top 3 quarterbacks on the slate in the Occupy Model, while Ronald Jones II projects to be highly owned come Sunday at the RB position. With a slate high 52.5 point game total, you should expect this to be one of the most popular game stacks in Week 10.

When looking at game stacks, we want to find games with the right mix of players who all have access to a realistic ceiling. The Packers and Panthers battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and each feature several options who can score 25+ fantasy points.

The most obvious option here is the most expensive player in DFS history, Christian McCaffrey. Beyond that, however, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams face the league-worst 32nd ranked DVOA rush defense, Davante Adams is back to full strength, and Carolina’s D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel duo each project for 8+ targets in the Occupy Model. Jimmy Graham leads Green Bay in red zone targets, while Greg Olsen owns a nearly every down role, playing 78% or more of offensive snaps in every Panther game. This game has a modest 47 point total. Of note: both Moore and Samuel are on our “underperforming WRs” list you can find in the player pool below (Adams just missed the cut).

BEST PLAYS BY POSITION

Quarterback

Stud: Lamar Jackson (@ Cincinnati)

The most expensive quarterback on the slate offers the highest floor and ceiling combination at the position, particularly when considering he faces a Bengals defense allowing 8.57 yards per attempt (Y/A) to opposing passers (league high) and 177.6 rushing yards per game (also league high). Lamar himself is pretty much a safe bet to throw 20+ times while adding another 10-15 (or more) rushes of his own. While it would be absurd to predict a repeat of Lamar’s Week 1 performance against the Dolphins, it’s worth pointing out that this Bengals defense is of similar #bad quality in 2019. Lamar has only scored less than 21.28 DraftKings points once this season.

Stud: Drew Brees (vs. Atlanta)

In his two full games this season, Drew Brees has posted a combined 66-86, 743 yard, 5 TD, 1 INT performance. Now facing the Falcons at home with his full complement of weapons (Kamara and Cook slated to return), the case could easily be made Brees ends up as the highest scoring QB on the slate. His favorite targets should face little resistance on defense, so expect the future Hall of Famer to play very well coming off the bye week.

Stud: Kyler Murray (@ Tampa Bay)

With so much anticipated success available to select from at the top of the salary table, we don’t think you really need to pay down at quarterback this week. Murray faces a Tampa Bay defense that forces quarterbacks to turn into stat compilers – their league best rush defense forces teams to exploit the weaknesses of their 26th ranked DVOA pass defense. All that adds up to a nice formula for focusing on Tampa’s opposing quarterback, and that’s before you consider Murray’s a bit of a “Lamar Lite” experience in fantasy football – while less consistent, he has reached the 10+ carries mark twice this season in addition to his passing work.

Should you need (or seek) more value than this at QB, check out the Occupy Model. We like Daniel Jones a lot for tournaments, and he does face a Jets defense that ranks 25th against the pass. It’s also never a bad idea to target the QB facing the Dolphins – putting Jacoby Brissett (if active) or Brian Hoyer in consideration, as well.

UPDATE: Brissett has been ruled OUT, Hoyer will start. 

Running Back

Stud: Christian McCaffrey (@ Green Bay)

$10,500. Whew! That’s 21% of your DraftKings budget, while “only” 17.5% of your FanDuel budget. The pricing by contest operators is smart – it’s meant to give you pause, and force you to consider whether you want to pay up for this player. We know not to mess around with the highest projected owned RBs on a slate by now here at Occupy Fantasy – CMC projects as the 2nd highest owned RB on DraftKings, and 4th highest owned on FanDuel currently.

His 37.4 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model is once again the highest on the slate. Green Bay allows their opponents to rush for over 127.7 yards per game, and are just 26th in the NFL defending the rush overall. We think it’s wise to continue to try and find your way up to CMC in low-risk contests, and believe there are value plays below that help you get there.

Stud: Saquon Barkley (“@” NY Jets)

Saquon has a “road” game against the Jets on Sunday, and will look to commit some serious New York on New York crime we should try and take advantage of. He has the second highest weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model at 35.7, and is currently our second highest ranked RB on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is also benefiting from a 3 point team total move in favor of the Giants here in Week 10, who are now 2.5 point favorites against the Jets. Saquon is playing at his home arena despite this being a “road” game, so this is pretty much your typical home favorite running back play as a result. He’s much more affordable than CMC.

Value: Jaylen Samuels (vs. LA Rams)

Jaylen Samuels was egregiously mispriced for his role in Week 9, and while it’s not a virtual lock he should be in your lineup this time around, he still pops in the Occupy Model in Week 10. He had 13 receptions on 13 targets against the Colts at home last week, so expect more of the same from Mason Rudolph here with James Conner and Benny Snell out once again. Samuels has a 29.6 weighted-opportunity score in the Occupy Model. 

Value: Devin Singletary (@ Cleveland)

The 2019 3rd round pick appears to have supplanted Frank Gore in the running game for Buffalo, seeing 66% and 68% of the snaps in consecutive weeks to just 29% and 34% for Gore. Total touches in Weeks 8 and 9 combined:

Frank Gore: 20 carries, 0 receptions on 0 targets
Devin Singletary: 23 carries, 7 receptions on 10 targets

We have a younger, more athletic, more dynamic RB seeing both more playing time and opportunity to touch the football now in this backfield. Singletary has a 24.7 weighted-opportunity score for us in Week 10.

UPDATE: With the news of Stafford being out — and the spread moving to CHI -7 as a result — David Montgomery has skyrocketed up the Occupy Model. He’s a great play today. 

Wide Receiver

Stud: Michael Thomas (vs. Atlanta)

With 11+ targets in 4 consecutive weeks, Michael Thomas continues to be an elite option for fantasy players. It doesn’t hurt that the Falcons are 31st by Football Outsiders’ DVOA against WR1s. With Atlanta allowing opposing passers to average 8.36 Y/A against them on the season, you can expect Drew Brees to pepper his favorite receiver with targets early and often as they look to establish an insurmountable lead. New Orleans’ has a slate high 32.75 implied team total – you should probably heavily consider locking in their skill player with the easiest volume to project this week since Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray’s workload split is much harder to forecast.

Stud: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (vs. Arizona)

While it may seem impossible for these two to have big games at the same time, underlying usage tells us that’s simply not the case. Godwin has played 95% or more of the snaps every single week, and has seen no less than 8 targets since Week 4. Evans plays slightly less sometimes, seeing between 86% and 97% of offensive snaps worth of action each week. Has he been a monster recently? No doubt. When you consider Godwin’s super high floor volume in the context of Evans seeing 17, 12, and 16 targets in the last 3 games, it’s easy to see the path to both having a great day for you.

You should be stacking one (or both) of these guys with Jameis Winston in tournaments, while each offer plenty of appeal for cash games as standalone plays. Based on recent usage alone, Evans is preferable to Godwin. The Occupy Model agrees – we project 11.0 targets for Evans, however Godwin’s 8.5 target projection is still inside the top 10 for us on the entire slate.

Arizona’s up tempo offense will most likely force the already pass-heavy Bucs into more possessions, which is only good news for both of these guys.

Value: DeVante Parker (@ Indianapolis)

With Preston Williams (IR, ACL tear) out of action for the rest of the season, DeVante Parker is firmly locked in as the top WR role for the Dolphins from here on out. This has been a fairly easy matchup for WRs all season, as the Colts rank just 24th against WR1s in 2019. Parker is probably the safest Dolphin for all types of contests to consider – he was a favorite target of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s even when Preston Williams was available. We have him projected for 8.2 targets in the Occupy Model.

Value: Auden Tate (vs. Baltimore)

One of the first plays I honed in on for value this week? Auden Tate. With A.J. Green ruled out for the foreseeable future, his eye-poppingly underrated role remains intact:



Rookie QB Ryan Finley had the
second highest completion percentage of all passers in the preseason, so we know he can get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Tate has also played 88% or more of the offensive snaps for the Bengals while drawing 6+ targets in every game he has started this season (Week 3 forward). These are all reasons why Tate is one of the featured players on our “underperforming WRs” list that you can find below.

Tight End

Stud: Travis Kelce (@ Tennessee)

Patrick Mahomes returns to the lineup for us in a spot where Travis Kelce’s salary is the lowest we’ve seen on a main slate all season. His 13 red zone targets have resulted in exactly zero red zone touchdowns on the season – something you should expect to see change sooner rather than later. We have him projected for 8.4 targets in the Occupy Model, the most at the position.

Value:  Jack Doyle (vs. Miami)

Doyle consistently plays 70% or more of the snaps, to just roughly 35-40% per game for Eric Ebron. Doyle is the better low-risk play as a result. He quickly became one of Brian Hoyer’s favorite targets against the Steelers in Week 9, so if Hoyer draws another start against the Dolphins, keep that in mind. The woeful Dolphins are just 26th by DVOA against the TE position in 2019.

Value: Rhett Ellison (“@” NY Jets)

With Evan Engram unavailable in Week 10 for the Giants, Rhett Ellison should be locked into an every down role on offense. We’ve seen this once before this season – when Engram sat out in Week 6 against New England, Ellison played 100% of the snaps and drew 7 targets from Daniel Jones. Ellison is one of the better “punt” plays on the board as a result; locking him at the TE position makes it easier to pay up at RB by a wide margin.

DST

Defenses are not typically going to be written up in detail in our Daily Plug on main slates. One of the optimal ways to select defenses for low-risk contests? Focus on defenses facing opponents with low Vegas team totals. We also want to target turnover prone quarterbacks when it makes sense. You shouldn’t ever pass on a player at another spot just to jam in a defense. We’ll always provide a list of low and high risk defenses in the player pool below.

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

This is a tougher week than normal – we have to overcome the loss of access to key players like Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman and Leonard Fournette for low-risk contests. We also have an absurdly high $10,500 price tag for the best RB on the slate, which will hopefully come back down to Earth once the bye weeks are behind us and the slates get larger.

We’re going to stick with the 4-6% recommendation we gave you for Week 9 here once again as a result.

Play 60-70% of that allocation in low-risk, and take some careful shots for your bankroll tier (recommendations below) at tournaments with the other 30-40%.

For low risk, remember to focus on H2Hs, single entry double ups (as always, multi-entry double ups are OK if you can max enter them).

Our studs and values by position are intended to be a roadmap to help you win in low-risk contests. For high-risk, there are plenty of strong GPP plays in the player pool, as well as contests for you to target.

For more information on contest selection and bankroll allocation, check out our MUST-READ Ultimate Guide e-book.

LINEUP STRATEGY

Check out the player pool below. In low-risk contests, you should continue to try and play 3 running backs from the write-up and low-risk sections. Often, the highest projected owned RBs in the Occupy Model end up being the sharpest low-risk plays. Smart players have all week to figure out who to run, ownership projections reflect that. 

Building 5-10-20 or more lineups for these large-field GPPs? Stick to a core of top plays (outlined below) that are projected to be highly owned, and build game stacks around that core. We strongly recommend stacking the highest total games on the slate above to accomplish this. Our partner, DFS Magic, has a lineup builder you can use to set your groupings using the Occupy Model rankings!

CONTEST RECOMMENDATIONS

Smaller Bankrolls

First and foremost, always play freerolls. Two of them available in the DraftKings lobby for Week 10 – the AutoNation Free Football Challenge, and a very special NFL $100K FREE 100th Season Contest – with a six figure prize pool! This is one of the best freerolls in recent memory – enter it here.

Look for no-badge users for low-risk H2Hs in the lobby. On DraftKings, post your own H2Hs and make sure you limit the opponents to 1 entry (per price point) against you (FanDuel doesn’t have this option). With the rest of your low-risk allocation, play single-entry double ups.

This is likely most people reading this – single-entry GPPs are the best high-risk tournaments to play. You want to give yourself the best shot to win; being on a level playing field with every other user by max-entering a contest is the way to go. Single entry contests are the easiest places to do this.

The first place you can do that are with “Contests” – these low priority, blandly named GPPs come with smaller field sizes and (usually) less experienced players. On DraftKings, the $0.25, $1, and $3 Contests are good places to start looking at playing. On FanDuel, the single entry 3-100 Player leagues meet this criteria. Everyone is drawn to the sexy, high-dollar top prize contests – you can lay low in here and (hopefully) grow your bankroll. You can 20-25x your entry fee by beating just 99 other people in these formats – it’s a great place to play.

The $3 entry fee, NFL $100K Pylon or $12 entry fee, NFL $200K Fair Catch on DraftKings are great places to spend your high-risk allocation. On FanDuel, there is also the $5 entry fee, $140K Sun NFL Spike, $2 entry fee $25K Sun NFL Safety, and $1 entry fee $22K Sun NFL Squib you should look at for single entry GPPs.

You should continue to play satellites for Millionaire Maker tickets you can use in later weeks. There is also an NBA Holiday BBall Millionaire contest that has satellites available on DraftKings now for some cross-sport opportunity – you have several weeks to rack up tickets for this.

Want to practice your multi-entry skills? Max enter a three entry max contest like the $5 entry fee, $100K Nickel on DraftKings.

The $40K Quarter Jukebox is a 20 entry-max tournament that costs just $5 to play at $0.25 per entry. Practice your mass-multi entry skills with our optimizer with a shot to win $1,500!

Want an even bigger challenge? FanDuel has a 150-entry max contest at just $0.05 per entry, the $16K Sun NFL Pooch Punt.

Larger Bankrolls

100-player Leagues/Contests remain great places to play – on DraftKings look for Contests in the $5 to $50 entry fee range, these are the best places to build your allocation around.

We introduced 20 entry-max contests to the Smaller Bankroll contest players. At your level, you should consider max entering the $3 entry fee, $888K Play-Action on DraftKings. This contest comes with a shot of taking down $80K, so you should have exposure to that nice prize here (prize pool nerfed a bit to accommodate some special contests this week addressed below).

You can also probably look at some of the higher dollar value single entry GPPs at your bankroll size – The $27 entry fee $75K Blind Side and $50 entry fee $150K Red Zone stand out. There is no Spy single entry contest on DraftKings this week at the $100 level.

For FanDuel users, you can consider the $1, 294 person WFFC Fan Championship on 12/15 satellites in addition to the NFL Sunday Million ones. The best single entry GPPs in the next tier up not mentioned above? The $33 entry fee, $120K Sun NFL Sweep, the $100 entry fee, $150K Sun NFL Cover 2, and the $50 entry fee, $50K Sun NFL Hot Route.

Largest Bankrolls

Have enough to (WITHIN our allocation guideline for your bankroll) max-enter a larger GPP? Congrats on being a big baller! Teach us your ways.

The $150 entry fee, $500K Power Sweep is a three entry-max GPP on DraftKings with a $100,000 prize to 1st (there’s also a $150K Power Sweep with a smaller field). Consider this heavily every week it’s offered at your bankroll size.

On DraftKings, the largest expense (and largest upside) play is the $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which is a 150-max contest with a $1 million dollar top-prize. We like to say you shouldn’t play contests with your own dollars unless you can max enter them – the Milly Maker is no different. This week’s is a special, 100th NFL anniversary edition – the entry fee is 5x higher at $100, but the field is much smaller at just 44.4K entries.

There is also a 150-max $2M Mini 100th Season Special that offers $300K to 1st at a $10 entry fee. Consider this if the milly maker is too rich for your blood this week.

The next best 150-max contest is the $9 entry fee, $100K Slant. It has one of the flattest payout structures on the slate, and a $10K top prize.

FanDuel users, you’ve got the $1.8M NFL Sunday Million which is a $9 entry fee, 150-max contest with a $300,000 top-prize.

BEST OF THE REST

If building player pools for mass-multi entry is your thing, consider using these names in addition to top plays above. Please remember – the Occupy Model is designed for high-risk contest optimization. Lower-ranked plays may still be great low-risk plays for that reason.

QUARTERBACKS:

LOW-RISK: Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan

HIGH-RISK: Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes II, Aaron Rodgers, Kyle Allen

RUNNING BACKS: 

LOW-RISK: Marlon Mack, David Montgomery, Mark Ingram II

HIGH RISK: Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, David Johnson, Derrick Henry, Ronald Jones II, Joe Mixon, Damien Williams, Kalen Ballage, Kenyan Drake, Todd Gurley, Jamaal Williams, Latavius Murray, Kareem Hunt

WIDE RECEIVERS: 

LOW-RISK: Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, Curtis Samuel, Zach Pascal, Demaryius Thomas

HIGH RISK: Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, John Brown, Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay Stafford OUT, Golden Tate, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Jarvis Landry, Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones Jr Stafford OUT, Jamison Crowder, Tyler Boyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Sammy Watkins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Anthony Miller, Russell Gage, Ted Ginn Jr

THE “UNDERPERFORMING WRS” LIST: Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Auden Tate, David Moore, Allen Robinson, Robert Foster, D.J. Moore

TIGHT ENDS:

LOW-RISK: Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews

HIGH RISK: O.J. Howard, Vance McDonald, Greg Olsen, Gerald Everett, Jimmy Graham

DST:

LOW-RISK: Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams

HIGH-RISK: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals

Plays are listed in order of preference (OF Index, DK Index where applicable).

Situation statistics sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Play Index Finder. DVOA data from FootballOutsiders.com. Air yards data pulled from AirYards.com (RIP). All salaries from contest providers. While we like the player pool selected above, we reserve the right to roster other players should news and trends closer to lock push us in that direction. Pay attention to our stream schedule for discussion of those thoughts!