NFL Week 3 – Fantasy Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em

NFL Week 3 – Fantasy Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em

The Baker Mayfield era is here! No Browns and Jets to talk about for this Sunday’s NFL Week 3 matchups, but as always lets take a deeper look down the depth charts and find players we can start over those we should sit.

Quarterbacks

START – Mitch Trubisky (@ Arizona)

The Cardinals enter Week 3 as the 30th ranked DVOA passing defense in the NFL, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for an average of 9.5 yards per attempt (Y/A) through two games. Trubisky himself is averaging just 5.4 Y/A in two games, but could have a strong day if he can find Allen Robinson and Trey Burton efficiently. Arizona also ranks 23rd and 28th in DVOA respectively against the WR1 and the TE this season.

SIT – Case Keenum (@ Baltimore)

While the trip from Denver to Baltimore isn’t as bad as it could be from further west, this is still a case of a western United States team flying east to play in the 1:00pm EST window of games, and thanks to the team at The Action Network, we know that doesn’t usually go well. On top of that, Baltimore brings the 7th best passing defense by DVOA into the matchup. Look elsewhere for help than the streamy-Keenum.

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Blake Bortles (vs. Ten) Marcus Mariota (@ Jax)
Eli Manning (vs. Hou) Derek Carr (@ Mia)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Pit) Andrew Luck (@ Phi)


Running Backs

START – Matt Breida (@ Kansas City)

This game is going to be a favorite target of fantasy players everywhere this weekend. With an over/under line of 55 points, there’s plenty of room for both offenses to provide value. Breida is averaging an outrageous 8.3 yards per carry on his 22 total carries this season, and which are good for just over 40% of the total carries on the year for the Niners. His role as a pass catcher may be where he shines in this one, though – Kansas City is dead last (32nd) against RBs by DVOA in the passing game.

SIT – Derrick Henry (@ Jacksonville)

The Jaguars are coming off a huge win against the Patriots, and are 10th in the league defending the rush by DVOA. Beyond the bad matchup, Henry’s also averaging an abysmal 2.9 yards per carry thus far, and is seeing less total touches than Dion Lewis out of the backfield. Stay away in Week 3.

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Chris Thompson (vs. GB) Marshawn Lynch (@ Mia)
Latavius Murray (vs. Buf) Royce Freeman (@ Bal)
Sony Michel (@ Det) LeSean McCoy (@ Min)


Wide Receivers

START – Robert Woods (vs. LA Chargers)

Woods leads the Rams wide receiver room in total targets, with 18 (17 for Cooks, 15 for Kupp). He’s being overlooked because Kupp is drawing more red zone targets to date, and Cooks has flashed with his production (12/246 on those 17 targets). The Chargers are the 20th pass DVOA defense on the year, so expect Goff to take some shots deep down the field to Woods here in the Battle of LA. His target floor should be safe enough to root for a home run ball, here.

SIT – Demaryius Thomas (@ Baltimore)

If we’re sitting Keenum, then we should probably sit Thomas, too. He’s still the target leader in Denver with 21 on the year, but has just 11 receptions to show for it. Keenum seems to be on the same page with Sanders more early on here, and I don’t see that changing in Week 3.

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Keelan Cole (vs. Ten) Amari Cooper (@ Mia)
Phillip Dorsett (@ Det) Devin Funchess (vs. Cin)
Tyler Boyd (@ Car) Brandon Marshall (vs. Dal)



Tight Ends

START – Will Dissly (vs. Dallas)

When Russell Wilson is raving about how good of a player you are, that’s a good sign for your value. Dissly enters Week 3 with a 6/147/2 output on 10 total targets through two games. The Cowboys are 25th in DVOA defending the position on the young season. I expect Russ to look for his new favorite weapon enough for it to matter – 4-6 targets feels like Dissly’s floor, here.

SIT – Austin Seferian-Jenkins (vs. Tennessee)

ASJ is facing the league’s best TE defensive unit by DVOA through two games this week. He does have a decent target share from Bortles on the year – the matchups are simply stronger for Cole, Moncrief, and Westbrook here.

Start Sit
Nick Boyle & Mark Andrews (vs. Den) Ben Watson (@ Atl)
O.J. Howard (vs. Pit) Jared Cook (@ Mia)