NFL Week 2 – Fantasy Start/Sit Decisions

NFL Week 2 – Fantasy Start/Sit Decisions

NFL Week 2 started tonight with Baltimore and Cincinnati’s first of two division games against one another. A.J. Green owners are happy! As always, I like to take a deeper look down the positional depth charts and recommend some players on the fringe for you to look at.

Quarterbacks

START – Case Keenum (vs. Oakland)

Last week, Oakland let Jared Goff throw all over the yard in the second half. Keenum himself had a nice day overall against Seattle last Sunday, but sentiment is probably being held in check thanks to his three interceptions. Keenum averaged 8.1 yards per attempt (Y/A) and threw for three scores on Seattle. I like him to regress towards his season averages with Minnesota last year in all categories, so I have him at a 242/1.50/0.48 line, which would be good for 16.5 fantasy points. This will put him roughly middle of the pack, but he could prove useful here if you have a QB in a worse spot.

SIT – Matt Ryan (vs. Carolina)

No one is a stronger Week 2 regression candidate than Matt Ryan, whose 2017 struggles continued in Week 1. Carolina ranks 11th in DVOA pass defense after one week of football – not the best sample size, sure. Last year, however, Carolina held the same rank, so we’ve now got 17 regular season games of Panthers defense being in the top third of the league in a row. There’s just simply better options out there than Matty Ice for you to look at this week.

Start Sit
Tyrod Taylor, Cle (@ NO) Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB (vs. Phi)
Matthew Stafford, Det (@ SF) Andrew Luck, Ind (@ Was)
Nick Foles, Phi (@ TB) Sam Darnold, NYJ (vs. MIA)


Running Backs

START – James Conner (vs. Kansas City)

Ok, if you didn’t believe in James Conner, believe in him now. The results are in, and they are not good for Le’Veon Bell:

The Steelers are going to continue to give their RB1 workhorse level volume regardless of who it is on Sundays. Conner draws a matchup against the Chiefs, who allowed Melvin Gordon & Austin Ekeler to have a strong game last week. The Chiefs pull into this one as the 28th DVOA rush defense after one game.

SIT – Jamaal Williams (vs. Minnesota)

Williams had a chance to solidify his role as the lead back against the Bears, and he only managed a paltry 3.1 yards per carry on 15 touches. Now, the Bears have Khalil Mack lurking back there this season, so there is a risk of overreaction here, sure. But Aaron Jones returns from his two game suspension in Week 3, so there’s strike two against Williams for me. The Vikings also pull into this one with the number 2 DVOA rush defense – strike three! Look elsewhere for RB production this week.

Start Sit
Adrian Peterson, Was (vs. Ind) Chris Carson, Sea (@ Chi)
T.J Yeldon, Jax (vs. NE) Marshawn Lynch, Oak (@ Den)
Phillip Lindsay, Den (vs. Oak) Duke Johnson, Cle (@ NO)


Wide Receivers

START – Josh Gordon (@ New Orleans)

Fantasy Jesus ended up playing 77.5% of the snaps for Cleveland after Hue Jackson warned the media all week that the former Pro Bowl WR wouldn’t start the game. Despite the snap volume, Gordon only drew 3 targets at windy, rainy First Energy Stadium in Cleveland’s first non-loss in 17 regular season NFL games. Expect a much larger role against the Saints in a weather neutral environment in Week 2. Gordon is facing a defense that was just torched by DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans, and looks to pick up right where those two left off. Without wind as a factor, I expect Tyrod to force a few more balls Gordon’s way. Josh Gordon has been released. Old take exposed!

SIT  – Robby Anderson (vs. Miami)

The Dolphins covered the Titans’ WRs really well in last week’s seven hour tilt, so I just don’t really love the matchup here for Anderson. Then, when you consider that Anderson only drew 1 target to Quincy Enunwa’s 10 against the Lions last week – well, Enunwa is just clearly the one to own, here. Bye, Robby!

Start Sit
Brandon Marshall, Sea (@ Chi) Corey Davis, Ten (vs. Hou)
Pierre Garcon, SF (vs. Det) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari (@ LAR)
Tyrell Williams, LAC (@ Pit) Devin Funchess, Car (@ Atl)


Tight Ends

START – George Kittle (vs. Detroit)

Kittle had a really strong Week 1 against the Vikings, posting a 5/90/0 line on 9 targets. The tight end matchup is strong again this week for him, as the Lions pull into Week 2 as the 25th DVOA defense against the position. Kittle and Garoppolo are clearly a connection to watch – Kittle’s 9 targets represented a massive 30% share last week. This will definitely drop back, but it indicates how comfortable of an option he is in this offense. He’s approaching must start every single week territory.

SIT – Jack Doyle (@ Washington)

Doyle drew far more targets than Ebron did last week, so he’s still the preferred option for Andrew Luck at the position. The problem here is matchup based: Washington is 5th in the league by DVOA at defending the position this season. They were 10th last season by the same metric. This isn’t a spot where I expect Doyle to smash – especially given that he does compete with Ebron for snaps, now.

Start Sit
David Njoku, Cle (@ NO) Cameron Brate, TB (vs. Phi)
Jonnu Smith, Ten (vs. Hou) Ian Thomas, Car (@ Atl)

 

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