Did I Beat Adam Levitan? My 2018 NFL DFS Review

Did I Beat Adam Levitan? My 2018 NFL DFS Review

TL;DR, hell no. He’s outrageously good at this. I might as well have lit my money on fire. For more, read on.

I am, as evidenced by the sparingly updated content at this URL, a fantasy football hobbyist. I dabble in both season long and daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests regularly as a result.

It can be fun to scoop head to head games against some of the DFS pros out there and test yourself.

I am mainly a DraftKings player, and as such, there’s no more prominent DraftKings NFL DFS player than the host of The Daily Fantasy Edge and self-proclaimed father of the most beautiful beast in the world, Gerri, one @AdamLevitan.

I literally don’t know Adam at all, so I’m not here shilling someone else’s results for any personal gain or anything. He’s just the most prominent cash game player I’m personally aware of with publicly accessible results to evaluate, which is why I chose him. I write these for me and to help improve my own process – if my tens of readers learn something from this, great!

Anyway, during the NFL season, Adam shares his prior week results on Mondays, as well as his final thoughts on the week and why he settled on his final selections for his team(s).

I didn’t attempt to scoop Adam once until Week 16. I won. After ordering a single duck treat for my own beast, I quickly realized this was Adam’s worst week of the year. I decided to scoop him again to test myself in Week 17, where Adam beat me as well as 97.9% of his overall opponents quite easily.

I decided I wanted to look back at the 2018 regular season and compare my own cash game teams to his to see exactly how I did.

I was able to use my scores from this site’s official three-man league (yes, Dave and I still ran the contest despite not doing content really at all this season) to quickly grab my own cash team scores. This was the right move for me since I typically enter a few head-to-heads or single entry double ups each week with the league lineup.

I backtested my teams against Adam’s scores. Here’s the breakdown of how I would have done against Adam if we played all year (click the link on my score to see the three-man Dave, Fanboy James and I have if you really need proof of concept, you must be signed in to DraftKings):

PlayerWinsLossesWin %

Not an awesome year for me head to head with Adam, to say the least. Here’s the weekly breakdown:

Week  cdr02989   AdamLevitan  Did I Win? 

By backtesting Adam’s posted win rates in his cash game review column, I calculated that his ROI % on the season must have been near a totally absurd 34.91% (assuming he played the same volume every week), netting a profit of roughly $0.35 for every $1 put in to NFL DFS. Hats off to Adam for that.

I clearly did way worse. Looks like I’m not going pro any time soon at DFS.

I think I learned a lot more this season in my third year playing each week. Inspired by Adam’s transparency, I’ll be calculating my own week to week win rates and evaluating my play even further after Conference Championship weekend wraps up.

It’s important to set benchmarks in life, and set goals to get better at anything you choose to do. This offseason, I plan to scrutinize my game selection more closely to see where I can better set myself up for success in 2019 NFL contests. I kind of passively know I may have left some money on the table some weeks.

Maybe I’ll inch closer to being able to compete with the pros consistently as a result of the exercise.