DFS Picks Week 3 NFL – Studs & Values

DFS Picks Week 3 NFL – Studs & Values

There is a lot of opportunity to roster studs this week thanks to injuries around the league. Here’s my favorite plays of Week 3 for DraftKings and FanDuel salary cap games:

Quarterbacks

STUD – Patrick Mahomes (vs. San Francisco)

His price is up, and rostering Mahomes is the epitome of chasing points after the first two games of the season. That said, the extremely talented deep ball passer faces the 29th DVOA pass defense on Sunday. There’s going to be a lot of Chiefs/Niners love in this column this week.

VALUE – Mitch Trubisky (@ Arizona)

As I wrote in the start/sit column, Arizona is a weaker defense against the passing game this season. Since opponents are only averaging a total of 31 passes per game against them, however, this opportunity really depends on Arizona being able to stay in this game so it doesn’t become 100% Jordan Howard for the Bears offense.

Running Backs

STUD – Christian McCaffrey (vs. Cincinnati)

The Bengals are 23rd in DVOA defending running backs in the passing game, which is bad news for them here in Week 3. CMC has posted a 20/147 line through two games on a total of 24 targets. He’s the leading receiver for Cam Newton by both actual production and target volume as a result. Still not convinced he’s a stud this week? While the Bengals defend the rush much better, CMC is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on his 18 rushes this season. He’s going to get the ball a lot, and he’s going to have a chance to shine.

VALUE – Corey Clement (vs. Indianapolis)

Colts-Eagles is riddled with injuries in Week 3, and on the Philadelphia side those injuries have opened up opportunity for Clement to produce. With no Jay Ajayi or Darren Sproles in Week 3, look for him to be the lead back and receive plenty of touches as Doug Pederson eases Carson Wentz back into this offense. Clement has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in limited work to this point on the year.

Wide Receivers

STUD – Tyreek Hill (vs. San Francisco)

Tyreek Hill has astonishing numbers so far – 12/259/3 on just 14 total targets. It’s easy to see that he’s the most valuable asset in fantasy right now the way that Mahomes is throwing the ball. San Francisco is allowing an average of 44.5 throwing attempts for their opponents through two weeks. Kansas City’s defense is allowing 55.5. This matchup just screams shootout, and if that happens, look for Hill to be involved in one or two big plays – he always is!

VALUE – Will Fuller (vs NY Giants)

Fuller posted an 8/113/1 line on 9 total targets against Tennessee in Week 2, his season debut. When he’s in the lineup, it opens things up for DeShaun Watson a bit more. The Giants are a man down at corner without Eli Apple in Week 3, which means their already thin secondary is even thinner. Fuller’s been mostly a boom or bust big play receiving option in his career, but if he’s going to see a high single digit target floor this year, that might be changing in 2018.

Tight Ends

STUD – George Kittle (@ Kansas City)

Kittle’s 13 targets are still good for the most on the 49ers on the season. This game provides him with massive upside, as Kansas City is 31st by DVOA against the position. Last week the touchdown went to fellow tight end Garrett Celek in a plus matchup – hey, it happens. That said, the spot still makes sense to favor Kittle as a strong option for all lineups this week.

VALUE – Eric Ebron (@ Philadelphia)

Without Jack Doyle, Ebron’s floor should be slightly higher against the Eagles in Week 3. It’s a slightly below average matchup (the Eagles are 13th in DVOA against the position), but Ebron’s low price makes him an acceptable risk. Playing him can help provide the salary cap relief we need to pay up for the studs on the slate. Ebron has 7/77/2 on 11 targets this season.

Best of the Rest

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan
RB: Alvin Kamara, Chris Thompson, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman, Latavius Murray, Kenyan Drake, Matt Breida, Giovani Bernard
WR: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Nelson Agholor, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, Keelan Cole, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd, Dede Westbrook
TE: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Will Dissly, Evan Engram, Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph
DST: Bears, Dolphins, Eagles, Jaguars, Vikings