DFS Picks Week 2 NFL – Studs & Values

DFS Picks Week 2 NFL – Studs & Values

Without a Monday night doubleheader scheduled, there are actually 13 games for us to navigate while making DFS Picks for Week 2 of the NFL season.

Some incredible value has already opened up on this slate. Devonta Freeman being ruled out for Atlanta’s game against Carolina means we can expect Tevin Coleman to get a ton of touches at a low, low price. Marquise Goodwin being ruled out for San Francisco means we can expect Jimmy Garoppolo to funnel more of his targets to his top options – including rookie WR Dante Pettis.

Here’s the core I see being worth building around this weekend:

Quarterbacks

STUD – DeShaun Watson (@ Tennessee)

Going back to the well with Watson isn’t a trend I intend on setting in this column, but I simply love the matchup for him once again. The Titans allowed Ryan Tannehill to average 8.2 yards per attempt (Y/A) on 28 drop backs last week. Watson should throw for over 300 yards this week, a result you can get by adjusting up the attempt volume to get it closer to Tennessee’s average against from last season. Watson had a tough week against New England without Will Fuller in the game. If he’s healthy and ready to go, it should help Watson spread the field and keep the defense honest. Tennessee comes into the game as 21st by DVOA against the pass on the young season.

VALUE – Tyrod Taylor (@ New Orleans)

The weather is not a factor at all in New Orleans, which means Tyrod is already facing much better passing conditions than he saw last week in Cleveland. Tyrod’s rushing upside gives him a high floor, something I like at this position in contests. The Saints will look to bounce back after a disappointing performance last week; as they bring the 32nd DVOA pass defense into this game, there should be opportunities for Taylor to make plays regardless of who wins. Look for Taylor to hover around 200-250 passing yards, and to have a chance to add points in the ground game with a floor of 4-7 rush attempts.

Running Backs

STUD – Alvin Kamara (vs. Cleveland)

Sticking with New¬†Orleans, it’s just undeniable how efficient Alvin Kamara is with his touches. He played 81% of the snaps last week against Tampa Bay, had over 60% of the carries (8 of 13), and received a monstrous 28.5% of the target volume (12 of 42) from Drew Brees. The Browns couldn’t stop James Conner from putting up numbers in Week 1, so I have even less confidence in them stopping Kamara. Cleveland is 20th against the rush and 28th against the position in the passing game by DVOA in 2018.

VALUE – Tevin Coleman (vs. Carolina)

Coleman draws the start against a Carolina defense that ranks 29th in rushing DVOA on the young season. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry in 2017, and should see a floor of about 15 carries in this game at 65-75% of the volume. He should see about 3-5 targets from Matt Ryan, boosting his floor thanks to his roughly 70% catch rate over the last year translating that into 2-3 receptions. As an unexpected starter, Coleman’s low price makes him a virtual lock based on opportunity, here.

Wide Receivers

STUD – Antonio Brown (vs. Kansas City)

AB received an absurd 40% of the targets last week in Cleveland and posted a 9/93/1 line despite the weather situation. It’s well established that Big Ben plays better at home than on the road, regardless of the reason for that inexplicable split. Brown’s volume of targets should come down a tad, but does it matter? The Chiefs are still a bad pass defense – they ranked 31st by DVOA last season against the WR1, and are 25th in 2018 on the young season.

VALUE – Pierre Garcon (vs. Detroit)

Garcon played 80% of the offensive snaps against Minnesota last week, and received 6 of ¬†30 (20%) total targets from Garoppolo. He was apparently shut out by Xavier Rhodes and a Minnesota defense that continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Detroit’s Darius Slay is coming off of a concussion, and while at this point he is expected to play, I don’t think many have faith in the Lions defense after what they saw on Monday night. Detroit is 32nd by DVOA against the WR1 position, which is where we should expect Garcon to play without Goodwin available.

Tight Ends

STUD – George Kittle (vs. Detroit)

I wrote about Kittle extensively in this week’s start/sit column, so that analysis all applies here, as well. He’s a better price per dollar value on DraftKings than on FanDuel this week, but I still feel comfortable with him on both providers based on his expected volume.

VALUE – David Njoku (@ New Orleans)

Njoku briefly left last week’s game with an injury, but is off the injury report as of Friday of this week. He played 88% of the offensive snaps last week, and drew 7 targets from Tyrod Taylor, good for 18.4% of the volume. It’s not a huge sample, but this Saints defense allowed all 5 targets to the TE position in Week 1 to be converted as catches. The Saints rank 23rd in DVOA against the position as a result on the young season. Njoku should be a strong option for Taylor in this one, much like he was in Week 1 of the preseason.

Best of the Rest

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Phillip Rivers, Case Keenum, Nick Foles
RB: Todd Gurley II, Melvin Gordon III, James Conner, Dalvin Cook, Adrian Peterson
WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Jarvis Landry, Dante Pettis
TE: Zach Ertz, Jimmy Graham, Jonnu Smith
DST: Eagles, Chargers, Redskins, Broncos