DFS Picks Recap Week 3 NFL

DFS Picks Recap Week 3 NFL

Calvin Ridley’s three touchdowns were a huge part of Matt Ryan’s stunning 26/35, 374 passing yard, 5 touchdown performance in Week 3. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Drew Brees was on the other side of the game in Week 3 – he led the Saints to a 43-37 overtime victory. The 80 total points led to huge fantasy output for Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones despite none of them finding the end zone.

Saints-Falcons ended up being the fantasy game of the day, outshining the hotly anticipated 49ers-Chiefs game by a wide margin.

Quarterbacks

STUD – Patrick Mahomes (vs. San Francisco) – 24/38, 314 yards, 3 TD | 5 carries, 7 yards
VALUE – Mitch Trubisky (@ Arizona) – 24/35, 220 yards, 1 INT | 2 carries, 8 yards

With a 35-10 halftime lead, Patrick Mahomes didn’t need to push the ball downfield in the second half. He was extremely efficient regardless, finishing as QB7 on the day (before the primetime games). He averaged 8.3 yards per attempt (Y/A), which is probably closer to what we should expect to see him do compared to the 10.6 Y/A he had coming in to this matchup. Mahomes was a fine play today with the 3 TD passes and the 300+ yards, good enough to earn the DraftKings bonus.

Trubisky’s 6.3 Y/A was 16.6% better than his average on the season, but his inability to connect with any of his receivers for a touchdown held his ceiling down on the day. Two scores would have propelled him into midrange, low end QB1 territory on the day. Arizona’s defense had a much better showing against him than they had against Alex Smith in Week 1 and Jared Goff in Week 2. This still might be a defensive unit worth targeting against better competition, however.

Running Backs

STUD – Christian McCaffrey (vs. Cincinnati) – 28 carries, 184 yards | 2 catches, 10 yards on 2 targets
VALUE – Corey Clement (vs. Indianapolis) – 16 carries, 56 yards | 3 catches, 19 yards on 4 targets

Can’t really complain about CMC’s output today, but it sure was frustrating to see C.J. Anderson get a touchdown in the red zone if you played him in Week 3. Even if you take away his long rush of 45 yards, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry on his other 27 touches. CMC touched the ball on 44.1% of Carolina’s offensive plays in Week 3 – he’s going to continue to be an elite option at that volume.

Clement and Wendell Smallwood were in more of a 50/50 split than anticipated, and Smallwood ended up with the rushing touchdown for the Eagles in Week 3. Clement’s 16 carries represented 45.7% of the rushing attempts for Philadelphia; his 4 targets were good for a 10.8% share of the passing attempts. Unfortunately, his output just wasn’t enough to meet value for salary cap contests in Week 3.

Wide Receivers

STUD – Tyreek Hill (vs. San Francisco) – 2 catches, 51 yards on 3 targets | 2 carries, 5 yards
VALUE – Will Fuller (vs. NY Giants) – 5 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD on 11 targets

Mahomes’ three touchdown passes went to Sammy Watkins, Demetrius Harris, and Chris Conley. Once the Chiefs created a four possession lead, the need for Mahomes to look for Hill deep evaporated. Hill’s 2.37 fantasy points per target in PPR remains elite; he’ll achieve better results when he gets his usual target volume.

Simply put, Hill was the wrong option to stack with Mahomes in Week 3. Travis Kelce’s DVOA matchup was far more attractive (SF 32nd against the position), and should have been taken advantage of. His 8/114 line on 10 targets reflects that.

The Houston Texans’ disappointing season continued in Week 3, as they fell to the New York Giants 27-22. Will Fuller did everything he could to prevent that result, though. His 11 targets represented a 28.9% share of Watson’s pass attempts, and were the most on the Texans for the day. Fuller remains an elite deep threat with his 20.2 yards per reception. In each of the two games he has played, DeShaun Watson has turned in top ten fantasy QB performances. This is an offense that is going to be fun to roster when Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins are all in the lineup.

Tight Ends

STUD – George Kittle (@ Kansas City) – 5 catches, 79 yards on 7 targets
VALUE – Eric Ebron (@ Philadelphia) – 5 catches, 33 yards on 11 targets

Disaster struck in Kansas City, because it looks like Jimmy Garoppolo may be done for the season. Kittle’s 7 targets were good for a 23.3% share of the attempts in Week 3 – 3 more than any other 49er. Had he found the end zone, this would have been a much better performance. I don’t expect Kittle’s involvement in the offense to change too dramatically if C.J. Beathard is forced into action.

Ebron’s target share increased without Jack Doyle active, unfortunately he only caught 45.4% of them in Week 3. A drop in the end zone on a well defended pass perfectly marked the frustrating day for Ebron owners. His 27.5% target share was the largest for all Colts receiving options on the day. If Doyle continues to miss time with his hip injury, Ebron should be in consideration – particularly because our eyes can see the Colts don’t trust Andrew Luck to push the ball deep downfield.

I typically grab all my stats for all players from Pro Football Reference gamelogs, and ratios are calculated in my own spreadsheets where necessary.